A survivor has emerged from the chaos in the Strait of Hormuz, and the story is bleak. The missile strike that hit a merchant vessel yesterday was no accident. It was targeted. Precise. The survivor, a crew member who asked not to be named, spoke from a hospital bed in Dubai. His friend is still missing. Presumed dead.
No one is claiming responsibility. But the whispers in Whitehall are loud. The usual suspects. Iran. Or a proxy. The game of denial has begun. The Foreign Office is 'monitoring'. The Navy is 'assessing'. But behind closed doors, the mood is grim. This is the third incident in two months. The first two were dismissed as 'technical faults'. Not this time.
A missile. In international waters. The implications are enormous. Oil prices will spike. Insurance premiums will soar. And the government? It is caught between a rock and a hard place. Do they retaliate? Or do they play the long game? The survivor says the attack came from a small boat. No flag. No warning. Just a flash. Then fire.
The friend who is missing? He was on deck. He never made it to the lifeboat. The search has been called off. The waters are too dangerous. Too deep. Too many sharks, the survivor said, with a hollow laugh.
Inside the lobby, the talk is of a 'new normal'. A Cold War in the Gulf. But with hot missiles. The defence secretary is due to make a statement tomorrow. Expect careful words. No escalation. But don't be fooled. The planning is already underway. Contingencies. Options. The military wants a show of force. The diplomats want caution. The prime minister will decide.
For now, the survivor waits. He has given his statement to the insurers. To the police. To the journalists. He has nothing left but a mobile phone with a picture of his friend. The government has offered counselling. He refused.
This is a story that will run. It has legs. And it has the smell of a crisis that was waiting to happen. The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint. And right now, it is a tinderbox. One spark. One mistake. And we are at war.
We'll be watching. As always.
