The Strait of Hormuz remains a no-go zone for many commercial vessels. Three factors explain why. First, Iranian harassment has not ceased. IRGC speedboats still shadow tankers. A boarding drill in March spooked crews. Second, insurance premiums have skyrocketed. War risk coverage for a single transit can top $100,000. Third, the Royal Navy’s presence is a double-edged sword. It deters overt attacks but signals persistent threat. One defence source told me: “Our ships are up there, but so are their missiles.”
The game inside Whitehall is familiar. The Ministry of Defence insists the Gulf deployment shows UK resolve. But critics whisper that it is a political gesture. A former admiral I spoke to called it “a fig leaf over a strategic gap.” He pointed out that the Royal Navy lacks escorts for multiple convoys.
Westminster is divided. Tory backbenchers from safe seats cheer the Navy’s role. Those with shipping interests in their constituencies demand more. Labour quietly says the government is grandstanding. The real puzzle is whether the deterrent effect will last. A senior naval officer told me: “We are one incident away from a crisis.”
My Lobby sources say the Foreign Office is pushing for a diplomatic off-ramp. But the Prime Minister’s office sees value in a muscular posture. Polling shows the public supports the Navy’s presence by 2-1. That is a number No.10 cannot ignore.
For now, ships will continue to avoid the strait. The insurance costs alone are prohibitive. The Royal Navy will stay. The instability is a feature, not a bug, of the current strategy. And the game goes on.
