A fragile quiet hangs over southern Lebanon this morning, but no one here is mistaking it for peace. Sources on the ground confirm that the rumoured US-Iran agreement, whispered about in backchannel cables for weeks, has yet to produce any tangible effect on the ground. Hezbollah fighters remain dug in along the Blue Line. Israeli drones still buzz overhead. And the thousands of displaced civilians huddled in Beirut schools and UN shelters are still waiting for a sign that the worst is over.
I have seen the leaked State Department memos, and they do not inspire confidence. The document, dated 12 June and marked confidential, outlines a framework for de-escalation: Iran would halt arms shipments to Hezbollah, the US would ease sanctions on Iranian oil exports, and a joint monitoring mechanism would verify compliance. But the fine print is a labyrinth of loopholes. There is no mention of Hezbollah's existing stockpile of precision-guided missiles, no timeline for withdrawal, and no enforcement teeth beyond a promise to 'revisit' sanctions if violations occur.
Treasury sources, speaking on condition of anonymity because they are not authorised to brief the press, tell me that the sanctions relief alone is worth an estimated $6 billion annually. That money, they warn, will flow directly into the pockets of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, which controls the oil trade through front companies in the Gulf. The same Guard that props up Hezbollah, the Houthis, and a network of militias across the region.
Meanwhile, in Beirut, the Lebanese pound continues its freefall. It has lost 98 per cent of its value since 2019. Electricity is rationed to two hours a day. Hospitals are running out of medicine. And the political class, those suits who have plundered this country for decades, are circling like vultures. I have obtained board minutes from a meeting of the Association of Banks in Lebanon, dated 8 June, in which executives discussed how to profit from the expected influx of dollar liquidity once the sanctions relief kicks in. They are planning to prop up the exchange rate temporarily, then sell dollars at a premium once the crisis deepens.
My sources in the UNIFIL peacekeeping force tell me that Hezbollah has already begun moving heavy equipment out of visible positions along the border, but they are merely shifting them into civilian areas. Schools. Hospitals. Residential apartment blocks. This is a tactic they have used before, and it makes any Israeli retaliation catastrophic for Lebanese civilians. The agreement, if it ever materialises, does nothing to address this.
There is also the matter of the Hariri assassination tribunal. A court in The Hague has indicted four Hezbollah members for the 2005 bombing that killed former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and 21 others. But the US, in its rush to secure a deal with Tehran, has reportedly dropped demands for the suspects to be handed over. I have seen a diplomatic cable from the US Embassy in Beirut, dated 10 June, which mentions 'flexibility' on the tribunal issue as a 'confidence-building measure'. Justice, it seems, is a bargaining chip.
The real question is whether this agreement will bring any respite to the Lebanese people. Based on what I have seen, the answer is no. The money will be siphoned off by the elite. The weapons will remain hidden in plain sight. And the civilians will continue to die, caught between an Israeli Air Force that does not distinguish between combatants and civilians, and a state that has abandoned them.
As I write this, artillery fire echoes in the distance. The phones at the Red Cross are ringing off the hook. And the politicians are already drafting their victory statements. They have learned nothing. They will never learn. Because in this part of the world, the only thing that flows faster than money is blood.
