A new Iran deal is taking shape in Vienna, and this one is different from all the rest. Sources close to the negotiations confirm that the proposed agreement includes three pillars that have never been combined before: weapons, money and ships. The combination represents a significant shift in the West's approach to Tehran's nuclear programme, and it is raising alarm among intelligence analysts who fear it could fuel a regional arms race.
The weapons component is straightforward: Iran would be permitted to purchase advanced conventional arms, including fighter jets and missile systems, from Russia and China. This marks a departure from the 2015 deal, which maintained a UN arms embargo until 2020. The new deal would lift restrictions immediately, allowing Tehran to modernise its military. Defence analysts say this could tip the balance of power in the Middle East, giving Iran the ability to project force across the Gulf.
The money part is more opaque. Under the proposed terms, Iran would gain access to an estimated $100 billion in frozen assets held abroad, primarily in South Korea and Japan. But sources say the deal also includes a mechanism for Iran to receive hard currency from oil sales without going through traditional banking channels. This would effectively create a parallel financial system, making it harder to track whether the funds are being used for weapons procurement or for propping up the regime's allies in Syria, Lebanon and Yemen.
The ships element is where the deal gets truly novel. For the first time, Iran would be allowed to register its oil tankers under foreign flags and use international shipping lanes without inspection. This would enable Tehran to bypass existing sanctions and deliver crude to buyers in Asia and Africa. Maritime security experts say this could be a game-changer, as it would allow Iran to conceal the origin and destination of its oil cargoes, undermining efforts to enforce UN resolutions.
Why this deal now? The Biden administration is desperate to salvage the nuclear talks and prevent Iran from enriching uranium to weapons-grade. But critics argue that the concessions on weapons, money and ships are far too generous. They say the deal does nothing to address Iran's ballistic missile programme or its support for terrorism. One Western diplomat put it bluntly: "We are trading long-term security for short-term compliance."
The clock is ticking. Negotiators face a June deadline before Iran's presidential election, which could bring a hardliner to power. If the deal falls apart, Iran could resume its nuclear breakout within months. But if it goes through, the consequences could be just as dire: a nuclear Iran with the means to finance its proxies and disrupt global trade.
Uncovered documents from the Iranian central bank suggest that senior officials are already planning how to move money through shell companies in Dubai and Turkey. They have learned from the mistakes of North Korea and Venezuela, which saw their illicit networks exposed. This time, they are using cutouts and cryptocurrency to stay ahead of the sanctions.
I have been covering Middle East deals for two decades, and I have never seen anything like this. The previous agreements were about stopping the bomb. This one is about managing the fallout. The question is whether the world is prepared for what comes next.
