The new Iran nuclear deal is being sold as a breakthrough, but sources in Whitehall have told me this is a house of cards built on the same shifting sands that collapsed the last three agreements. The UK’s own intelligence assessment warns of a ‘paper peace’ – a document that looks good in Geneva but buys Tehran time and money to enrich uranium and fund proxies. The mechanics differ, yes.
This time it’s a phased relief of sanctions tied to snap inspections and a cap on enrichment. But the real currency is trust, and that’s in short supply. Uncovered documents show that the previous deal’s monitoring regime was riddled with loopholes.
Inspectors were denied access to military sites. The new deal expands access but enforcement remains toothless. The money: billions in frozen assets will be released upfront, and the UK Treasury admits it cannot track the flow of funds once they leave escrow.
The weapons: the arms embargo expires in five years, not ten as in 2015. The ships: Iran’s navy, bankrolled by the cash injection, can now menace tankers in the Strait of Hormuz with impunity. Insiders tell me the PM is ‘troubled’ but forced to sign for diplomatic cover.
This isn’t a deal. It’s a reprieve with a fuse.
