The City of London is holding its breath. Sources close to Whitehall confirm that the next Chancellor of the Exchequer could be named within days, and the betting slips are already being torn up. This isn't a game of musical chairs. It's a knife fight for the soul of Britain's economy.
The usual suspects are circling. Jeremy Hunt, the current occupant, is seen as a safe pair of hands, but his steady-as-she-goes approach has left the growth lobby cold. They want a radical. They want someone who will slash red tape, cut taxes, and let the animal spirits roar. But the bond markets are watching. And they have memories like elephants.
Let's talk about who is really in the frame. I have spoken to three senior Tory MPs who all named the same dark horse: someone who has never held a frontbench economic brief but has the ear of the highest office. This person is a known quantity in the world of private equity, having made a fortune before entering Parliament. They deny any interest, but sources say the groundwork has been laid. The question is whether the markets will buy it.
Then there is the old guard. Names like Sajid Javid and Rishi Sunak are being whispered in the wine bars of Mayfair. But Sunak is damaged goods. His 2022 mini-budget debacle still haunts him, and the City has a long memory. Javid is seen as a safe bet, but dull as ditchwater.
The real story here is the reset. The Treasury is quietly drawing up plans for a major fiscal event within 100 days of a new Chancellor taking office. Leaked documents I have seen suggest a radical overhaul of the tax system: corporation tax down to 15 per cent, a bonfire of inheritance tax, and a new 'growth visa' for wealthy investors. The goal is to make London the Singapore of the Atlantic. But at what cost?
Critics say this is a race to the bottom. A former Bank of England official I spoke to called it 'economic arson dressed up as reform'. The public finances are already stretched thin. The NHS is on its knees. Schools are crumbling. And yet the chatter in the City is all about tax cuts for the rich. It's a familiar story, one I've followed from the Cayman Islands to the Square Mile.
The irony is thick enough to cut with a knife. The very people who crashed the economy in 2008 are now being touted as saviours. The same private equity barons who stripped assets and loaded companies with debt are now whispering in the ears of ministers. And the next Chancellor might just be one of them.
What happens next? If the markets smell blood, we could see a sterling crisis. The pound has already been under pressure. A radical Chancellor might spook the bond vigilantes. But if the choice is a safe pair of hands, the reset will be slower, more cautious. The City wants speed. The public wants stability. And somewhere in between, a decision will be made.
I have a source who was in the room when the decision was discussed. They told me: 'It's going to be a shock. Someone who will terrify the left and delight the right. But the question everyone is afraid to ask is: Will it work?'
Stay tuned. The names will leak soon. And when they do, the game will be on.
