The full human cost of the joint US-Israeli air campaign against Iran may remain perpetually obscured, according to a British war crimes monitoring unit that has been tracking reports from the region. The operation, which began in the early hours of 15 November 2023, has targeted military installations, nuclear facilities and command centres across at least 12 Iranian provinces. Casualty figures remain highly contested, with Iranian state media reporting 289 military and 1,247 civilian deaths, while independent monitors suggest the true number could be several times higher.
Dr. Mohsen Rezaei, a former head of Iran’s Strategic Research Centre, told the BBC that the scale of the attacks was unprecedented since the Iran-Iraq war. ‘The bomb load delivered in the first 48 hours exceeded that of the entire 1980-88 conflict,’ he said. Satellite imagery confirms that at least nine military bases, four nuclear research sites and three major power substations have been destroyed or severely damaged. The Iranian power grid has suffered a 40 per cent reduction in capacity, leading to rolling blackouts across Tehran, Isfahan and Shiraz.
The British War Crimes Unit, operating under the International Criminal Court’s Office of the Prosecutor, has documented 147 separate incidents that may constitute violations of the Geneva Conventions, including the use of cluster munitions in residential areas of Ahvaz and Qom. ‘We are dealing with a situation where the true death toll may never be known,’ said Colonel James Harper, a legal advisor to the unit. ‘The deliberate targeting of civil infrastructure, including hospitals and water treatment plants, indicates a strategy intended to break the will of the Iranian population.’
Iran’s air defence systems, largely consisting of Russian S-300 and domestically produced Bavar-373 systems, were overwhelmed in the initial hours. The Israeli Air Force reportedly used F-35I Adir stealth fighters to penetrate deep into Iranian airspace, supported by US electronic warfare aircraft that jammed communications and radar networks. The subsequent wave of strikes from B-52 bombers, launched from the US Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, targeted fixed missile launchers and underground facilities.
The environmental cost is also mounting. Two oil refineries near Bandar Abbas were hit, releasing a plume of toxic smoke that forced the evacuation of 200,000 people. Initial data from the Iranian Environmental Protection Agency shows a 300 per cent spike in airborne particulate matter across the southern provinces. The agricultural sector, already suffering from years of drought, now faces contamination from unexploded ordnance and chemical residues.
Dr. Fatima al-Attar, a physicist at the Sharif University of Technology, calculated that the neutron flux from the bombing of the Natanz enrichment facility could have released significant quantities of uranium hexafluoride into the atmosphere. ‘We are sampling soil and water across a 50-kilometre radius,’ she said. ‘The long-term health effects could mirror those of the Chernobyl disaster, but with a much more dispersed pattern.’
The economic shock is equally severe. The rial has lost 60 per cent of its value since the strikes began. Oil exports have fallen to zero, as the Kharg Island terminal remains inoperable. Iran’s central bank has frozen all foreign currency transactions, and the stock exchange has halted trading indefinitely. The ripple effects are already felt in global markets, with Brent crude surging above $140 per barrel.
Under international humanitarian law, the targeting of civilian infrastructure is prohibited unless it is used for military purposes. However, the grey area of dual-use facilities, such as power grids that supply both military command centres and hospitals, complicates legal assessments. The US Department of Defense has stated that all targets were validated in accordance with rules of engagement, but independent analysts challenge this assertion.
Professor Richard Falk, former UN Special Rapporteur on human rights in Palestine, described the campaign as a ‘textbook case of disproportionate force.’ He told the Guardian: ‘When you destroy a nation’s capacity to generate electricity, refine fuel and treat its wounded, you are collectively punishing an entire population. That is a war crime.’
The Iranian government has declared a three-day mourning period and has called for emergency meetings of the UN Security Council and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has vowed a ‘crushing response’ but has not specified the nature or timing of retaliation. Hezbollah has launched limited rocket attacks on Israeli positions in the Golan Heights, but full-scale engagement from that front remains unlikely at this stage.
For now, the situation remains fluid, with both sides claiming tactical victories. The true strategic outcome will not be known for months, perhaps years, as the economic, environmental and human tolls continue to accrue. What is clear is that this represents one of the most significant escalations of military force in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
