The US economy is showing signs of stubborn resilience. Again. GDP figures out of Washington beat expectations for the second straight quarter. Consumer spending holding up. Labour market tight. Inflation easing. The 'soft landing' narrative is gaining ground.
Inside the Treasury, officials are watching closely. They see parallels with Britain's post-Brexit challenges. A source close to the Chancellor tells me the 'American model' is being studied for lessons. Not wholesale adoption. But selective borrowing. Deregulation? Tax incentives? Labour flexibility?
The PM is briefed daily. No. 10 is nervous. They know the comparison is a double-edged sword. If the US can thrive after its own shocks, why can't we? The opposition will use it.
Behind the scenes, there's a scramble. The Treasury's 'Project Resolve' is looking at US supply chain innovations. The 'Inflation Reduction Act' effect. They're asking: what can we replicate without copying the Biden agenda?
One senior official quipped: 'They have a massive domestic market. We have fish and EU bureaucracy.' The mood is not defeatist. But it's realistic. The data from across the Atlantic is a wake-up call.
Meanwhile, backbench Tories are growing restless. They want action. They want the 'Brexit dividend' realised. The Chancellor is under pressure to deliver a 'Budget for Growth' before the party conference.
This story is not just about economics. It's about political survival. The government's credibility hinges on turning around the growth figures. If the US can do it, why can't we? That question echoes in every Whitehall corridor.
The next few weeks are crucial. We'll be watching for a speech. A policy paper. A leak. Anything that shows the Treasury has a plan.
For now, the US economy is the yardstick. And it's a high bar.
