Westminster-watchers, take note. The US Justice Department's decision to indict Raúl Castro is not just a legal manoeuvre. It is a strategic blunder of epic proportions. One that lays bare the crumbling edifice of American moral authority in Latin America.
First, the facts. The indictment, unsealed in a Washington D.C. court, charges the former Cuban president with drug trafficking, hostage-taking, and acts of terrorism. It is a list as long as your arm. But here is the rub. This is not a prosecution that will ever see the inside of a courtroom. Castro is in Havana, not handcuffs. It is a symbolic gesture. A piece of theatre designed for domestic consumption.
But the audience that matters most is not in Florida. It is in Bogotá, Buenos Aires, and Brasília. And they are not clapping. They are wincing.
Let me tell you why. The United States has been losing the battle for hearts and minds in Latin America for a decade now. The numbers do not lie. A 2023 Pew Research poll showed that only 34% of Latin Americans have a favourable view of the US. That is down from 55% in 2015. China? Their favourability rating is 63% in the same region.
So, when Washington dusts off the Cold War playbook and indicts a 92-year-old former leader who has been out of power for five years, it looks less like justice and more like desperation. It reeks of a superpower that cannot accept its diminished status. A power that still thinks it can dictate terms from the North.
The timing is particularly brutal. The indictment comes just weeks after the US failed to get a single Latin American country to sign onto its latest round of sanctions against Venezuela. Not one. Even Colombia, historically America's staunchest ally in the region, stayed on the sidelines.
And here is the whisper from the corridors of power. Sources close to the State Department tell me that career diplomats were blindsided by this indictment. They see it as a gift to Beijing and Moscow. A chance for them to say: 'Look. The Americans have not changed. They still think they can run the hemisphere with threats and show trials.'
What does this mean for the Labour government? Starmer's team has been quietly trying to rebuild bridges with Latin America. They have sent trade delegations to Chile and Brazil. They want post-Brexit deals. But now they have to decide: do they stand with Washington on this? Or do they distance themselves?
I hear the Foreign Office is deeply uncomfortable. They do not want to be dragged into a legal circus that has no chance of success. But they also cannot afford to alienate the US. It is a classic two-step. Expect careful wording. Statements that say 'we respect the judicial process' without actually endorsing it.
The real story here is not Raúl Castro. It is the hollowing out of American soft power. In the 1990s, the US could have secured extradition for an indicted foreign leader. Now? They cannot even get a phone call returned.
This is a lesson for Westminster. Power is not what it used to be. And those who do not adapt get left behind. The game has changed. The question is: has anyone in the White House noticed?
