A clandestine backchannel between Washington and Tehran, facilitated by British intelligence, has led to what diplomats describe as “real progress” in nuclear negotiations. Three sources familiar with the talks confirmed to this newspaper that meetings in Oman this week produced a provisional framework for uranium enrichment limits and sanctions relief.
The backchannel was initiated six months ago by MI6 officers who had maintained contact with Iranian counterparts since the collapse of the 2015 nuclear deal. A senior British official described the effort as “patient work of the highest order”. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said: “We are not looking for a photo op. We are looking for verifiable steps.”
The emerging deal would cap Iranian enrichment at 3.67 per cent for a renewable 10-year period in exchange for the unblocking of £18 billion in frozen oil revenues. But the devil remains in the details. Verification mechanisms are still being negotiated, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps has yet to sign off on expanded IAEA inspections.
In Washington, the White House refused to confirm the talks, but a National Security Council spokesperson said: “We welcome any constructive diplomatic efforts.” In Tehran, a foreign ministry statement called the discussions “positive and forward-looking”.
Sceptics warn of a pattern. Similar backchannel breakthroughs in 2013 and 2015 collapsed under partisan attacks in Congress and Israeli lobbying. “Everyone wants a deal until they see the fine print,” said a former State Department negotiator. “Then the knives come out.”
This backchannel, however, is different. Unlike the 2015 process, which was largely a bilateral US-Iran affair with the EU as a spectator, the British have embedded themselves in every turn of the talks. Five separate meetings have taken place in undisclosed Gulf locations, each one coordinated by a small team of MI6 officers and Farsi-speaking diplomats.
The fragility of the deal was underscored by a leak from an Israeli intelligence assessment that warned the framework “papers over Iranian nuclear breakout capacity”. A senior Iranian negotiator dismissed the Israeli claims as “baseless fear-mongering intended to scuttle talks”.
The next hurdle is a joint announcement scheduled for next week in Vienna. If the framework holds, it will mark the most significant diplomatic achievement since the 2015 deal. But if it fails, the backchannel may be burned for a decade.
One Western diplomat summed up the mood: “We have three chairs at the table. One is American, one is Iranian, and one is British. The British chair is the one that keeps the table from falling over.”
For now, the table is steady. But in the world of nuclear diplomacy, a table can collapse with a single phone call from a hardliner in Tehran or a hawk in Washington.