The White House has authorised direct strikes on Iranian military targets. This follows the attack on a US-flagged cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz. Three merchant sailors are dead. The Pentagon claims 'decisive retaliation.'
Downing Street was briefed an hour before the first bombs fell. The Royal Navy is now scrambling. Two Type 45 destroyers are being rerouted to the Gulf. A third is on standby in Portsmouth. The message is clear: British shipping will be protected.
But here is the unspoken truth. Whitehall is terrified of escalation. The Foreign Office has been silent. The Prime Minister is chairing COBRA this evening. Sources tell me the mood is 'grim.'
Defence sources confirm the UK will not join US strikes. 'We are not at war with Iran,' a senior MOD official stressed. But the Royal Navy's rules of engagement have been loosened. Commanders can now fire on Iranian fast attack boats without waiting for permission.
The cargo ship attack was brazen. A drone swarm, likely Iranian-made, struck the MV Pacific Voyager at dawn. Three crew killed, seven injured. The ship was chartered by a US logistics firm. Iran denies involvement. But US intelligence claims they intercepted communications from the IRGC.
Iran's response has been predictable. They threaten to close the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices have already spiked 4%. The Treasury is calculating the cost. Every percentage point hits the British consumer. Petrol at the pump will rise by Tuesday.
Labour is demanding a statement to Parliament. The shadow foreign secretary is calling for 'restraint.' But the government is in a bind. Too weak a response emboldens Iran. Too strong drags us into another Middle Eastern quagmire.
The PM's position is precarious. His own backbenchers are restless. The right wants a show of strength. The left warns of mission creep. I am told the Defence Secretary argued for a more robust posture. The Foreign Secretary counselled caution.
What happens next? The US has vowed more strikes if shipping is threatened. Iran will test the Royal Navy's resolve. Watch the oil tankers. If they start sailing under British escort, we are in a de facto conflict.
For now, the game is on. Whitehall is holding its breath.
