The echoes of the explosions felt in Tehran this morning will be heard on the streets of Blackburn and Burnley before the week is out. The US decision to strike military targets inside Iran, confirmed in a terse Pentagon statement, has sent a jolt through the global economy that will hit the kitchen tables of working families in Britain hardest of all.
Let me be clear about what this means for the price of petrol, the cost of your weekly shop, and the security of your job. The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow choke point through which a fifth of the world's oil passes. When the US bombs Iran, that route becomes a gamble. Oil prices leapt by 8% within hours of the news. An oil price shock of this magnitude is a tax on every family. It seeps into the price of bread, the cost of heating your home, and the viability of the factories that still provide good jobs in the North. The last time we saw a spike like this, the cost of living crisis that followed pushed food banks to breaking point. We cannot afford a repeat.
This is not an abstract geopolitical game for the strategists in Whitehall. This is a direct threat to the living standards of millions who have already endured a decade of stagnant wages and insecure work. The Prime Minister stands with the Americans, as he always does. But what does that mean for the workers at the petrochemical plants in Runcorn? For the drivers hauling goods from ports that will soon be clogged with insurance surcharges? For the families in Hull who are already spending more than half their income on housing and fuel?
The union movement, battered but not broken, is already issuing warnings. The TUC has called for an emergency debate. They know that war is not just fought with bombs. It is fought with the economic conscription of ordinary people, who are forced to pay for it in higher prices and lost employment. The government must immediately announce a windfall tax on oil companies, whose profits will swell on this crisis. They must protect the most vulnerable with a price cap on essential energy and fuel. They must, above all, refuse to be dragged into a conflict that will be paid for in the coin of the poor.
This is not just about oil. It is about the regional inequality that this country has tolerated for too long. The industrial heartlands, the towns that built this nation, are always the first to feel the pain of global instability. Their jobs are less portable. Their savings are thinner. Their voices are often ignored in the clamour for foreign intervention. The government must remember who ultimately foots the bill for these adventures.
I have sat with steelworkers in Scunthorpe who saw their industry hollowed out by cheap imports. I have spoken to cleaners in Manchester who work two jobs to keep a roof over their heads. They do not need another foreign crisis to add to their burdens. They need a government that puts their interests first. That means not just calling for restraint in the Gulf, but taking immediate action to cushion the blow at home.
The American President has made his choice. Now the British Prime Minister must make his. He can stand with the workers of the North, or he can stand with the hawks who will see this as an opportunity to beat the drums of war. The difference between the two will be measured in the prices on the shelves of your local supermarket. I know which side I am on.
