The United States launched a series of precision airstrikes on military installations in southern Iran late yesterday, escalating the conflict that has simmered for months. The operation targeted missile batteries, radar sites, and naval facilities near the port of Bandar Abbas, according to Pentagon officials. The strikes came hours after Tehran announced that negotiations for a ceasefire have collapsed, with a senior Iranian general stating ‘no peace deal is imminent’.
This is not a sudden shift but a deliberate escalation. The US has warned for weeks that it would act unilaterally if diplomatic channels failed. The strikes are confined to the southern coast, avoiding nuclear sites or Tehran itself, suggesting a calibrated attempt to degrade Iran’s ability to threaten shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. That strait handles about 20% of the world’s oil. A single attack could send crude prices into volatility not seen since the 1970s.
From a climatological perspective, any sustained military engagement in this region risks massive carbon release. Fires at oil refineries or damage to pipelines would inject millions of tonnes of CO2 into an already oversaturated atmosphere. The historical precedent is clear: the 1991 Gulf War oil fires emitted roughly 1.5% of global annual emissions at the time. We can no longer afford such unaccounted externalities. Every conflict now accelerates the biosphere collapse we are already failing to contain.
The Iranian response has been muted but predictable: Supreme Leader Khamenei called the strikes ‘a desperate act by a fading empire’, while the IRGC promised ‘proportional retaliation’. Cyberattacks on US infrastructure are likely. The immediate danger is miscalculation. A single radar error or miscommunication could turn a limited engagement into a broader war.
Energy markets will react sharply. Oil prices are already up 4% in after-hours trading. The EU and China have called for restraint, but neither has the leverage to force a ceasefire. Russia, predictably, blamed the US for provoking the crisis. The UN Security Council is scheduled to meet in emergency session tomorrow.
This is not a surprise. The geopolitical climate has been warming as surely as the physical climate. Resource scarcity, water stress in the Middle East, and the energy transition are all fraying the fabric of international relations. We are seeing the classic pattern of a fragmented world lashing out when diplomacy fails. The US has chosen to demonstrate that its military power remains unchallenged, even as its soft power erodes.
The real story here is not the bombs but the silence between them. The lack of a credible diplomatic off-ramp. The absence of a global framework to prevent such conflicts. We have treaties for outer space, for the seabed, for Antarctica. But when it comes to the most volatile region on Earth, armed with the most advanced weapons, we rely on brinkmanship and luck.
For the average person, this means higher fuel costs, disrupted supply chains, and a heightened risk of further escalation. For the planet, it means another source of emissions we cannot afford, another drain on resources needed for adaptation. The climate crisis does not pause for war. It simply compounds.
Dr. Helena Vance, Science and Climate Correspondent
