A tremor ran through the Foreign Office this morning. US Vice President JD Vance, speaking on air, let slip what Westminster has long dreaded: an American return to the Iran nuclear deal is imminent. ‘Very close,’ he said. The word ‘close’ in this town means ‘done’.
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, is the zombie accord that refuses to die. Trump killed it in 2018. Biden tried and failed to resurrect it. Now, under the shadow of a re-elected Trump, Vance hints at a new bargain. Whitehall sources describe a ‘feverish’ atmosphere in the Cabinet Office. The fear is not just about Iran’s enriched uranium. It is about what comes next.
One senior official, speaking on condition of anonymity, was blunt: ‘If the US cuts a deal, the Gulf states will panic. Saudi Arabia will want the same. The UAE will feel exposed. You will have a nuclear cascade across the Middle East.’ That is the code word: cascade. It keeps arms control experts awake at night.
The timing is brutal for Keir Starmer. The Prime Minister has staked his foreign policy on a rules-based order. Yet he cannot openly defy Washington. The special relationship demands loyalty. But backbenchers are restless. Labour MPs with Jewish constituents are already voicing concerns. Their whips are sweating.
Downing Street’s official line is: ‘We await full details.’ Translation: we are scrambling. The FCDO has convened an emergency session for tomorrow morning. The intelligence assessment will be grim. Iran’s breakout time, the period needed to build a bomb, has shrunk to weeks. The IAEA inspectors are frustrated.
Vance’s comments came during a routine press gaggle. But nothing is routine when it comes to Iran. The deal being discussed is not the old JCPOA. It is reportedly a ‘less for less’ framework: Tehran limits enrichment to 60% in exchange for partial sanctions relief. That is still weapons-grade threshold.
Critics in the Tory ranks smell blood. A former defence secretary called it ‘Munich-level appeasement’. The Foreign Affairs Select Committee has demanded an urgent hearing. They want to know: did the British ambassador in Washington have a heads-up? Was the Prime Minister informed before Vance’s broadcast?
The whispers suggest no. That would be a diplomatic humiliation. Starmer’s relationship with Trump was already testy. This leak, if it is a leak, feels deliberate. The Trump camp wants to force a fait accompli.
Meanwhile, the Israeli embassy in London is unusually quiet. Their lobbyists are working the phones. They know that a deal without robust inspections is a sham. The UK’s own nuclear non-proliferation treaty obligations are at stake. If we bless this, we lose all credibility.
What happens next? The Foreign Secretary will try to insert safeguard clauses. The French and Germans will do the same. But the White House is in a hurry. Vance is the hatchet man. His message is clear: get on board or get left behind.
In the bars of Westminster, the talk is of resignations. One junior minister in the Foreign Office is said to be ‘reflecting’. That is the prelude to a resignation letter. Starmer cannot afford a resignation. Not now. Not over Iran.
The polling is clear: the public does not care about the JCPOA. They care about the cost of living. But the Labour MPs who do care are the ones who matter. They are the ones who vote on legislation.
By Friday, we will know the shape of the deal. Or we will know the shape of the revolt. Either way, the cascade is coming.
