In a significant diplomatic signal, US Vice President JD Vance has confirmed that Washington and Tehran are 'very close' to reaching a new agreement on Iran's nuclear programme, though he cautioned that 'we are not there yet'. The carefully calibrated statement, delivered during a briefing en route to a Middle East security summit, sets the stage for what could be a defining moment in the Biden administration's foreign policy legacy.
Let's parse the game here. Vance, not the usual conduit for sensitive nuclear talks, was chosen deliberately. His presence signals that the White House is ready to sell a deal to a sceptical Congress and an uneasy Israeli government. The phrase 'very close' is classic diplomatic code: it builds momentum, puts pressure on Tehran to finalise, and tests the waters for domestic blowback.
The details emerging from State Department sources suggest a framework that mirrors the 2015 JCPOA but with stricter sunset clauses and enhanced verification measures. Iran would cap enrichment at 3.67% and reduce its stockpile, while sanctions relief would be phased. The sticking points remain: Iran's ballistic missile programme and its regional proxies. Vance's warning that 'not there yet' likely refers to these unresolved issues.
Back in Westminster, the impact is palpable. Foreign Secretary David Lammy has been briefed. The smart money says London will follow Washington's lead, but No.10 is wary of a repeat of the 2015 rebellion that split Labour. Tory backbenchers are already sharpening their knives. 'If this deal is as toothless as the last one, we will oppose it,' a senior Conservative MP told me tonight.
On the markets, oil prices dipped 2% on the news, a sign that traders are pricing in increased supply if sanctions ease. But the real action will be in Tel Aviv and Riyadh. Israel's Mossad chief is believed to be in Washington for urgent consultations. The Saudi position remains opaque, but it is no secret that Riyadh wants its own nuclear deal.
The timeline? Sources suggest a framework could be announced within weeks. But the devil, as always, is in the detail. Vance's words are a signal of intent, not a fait accompli. For now, the smoke-filled rooms of diplomacy are working overtime. Watch this space.
