A deal between the United States and Iran is tantalisingly close, according to US Vice President JD Vance, who warned on Tuesday that both sides are “very close” but “not there yet.” The statement, delivered in a closed-door briefing to allied diplomats, has sent ripples through Whitehall, where officials are scrambling to assess the implications for British interests in the Middle East.
Sources familiar with the negotiations confirm that talks have accelerated in recent weeks, with the US offering significant sanctions relief in exchange for verifiable limits on Iran’s uranium enrichment. But Vance’s caution suggests lingering obstacles, particularly over the timeline for snapback mechanisms and the scope of inspections.
“We are closer than we have been in years,” a senior British diplomat told me, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to discuss sensitive negotiations. “But the devil is in the details. And there are a lot of devils.”
The diplomatic dance follows months of backchannel communications, brokered by Oman and Qatar. Iran’s chief negotiator, Ali Bagheri Kani, has signalled flexibility on enrichment levels but demands a guarantee that future US administrations cannot unilaterally withdraw. That demand, a direct response to Trump’s 2018 walkout, remains a sticking point.
Vance’s warning is notable for its timing. It comes just days after Tehran announced it had installed advanced IR-6 centrifuges at its underground Fordow facility, a move that Western intelligence agencies say cuts the breakout time to weapons-grade material to just weeks. The clock is ticking.
For UK diplomats, the stakes are high. Britain maintains a delicate balancing act: supporting US-led diplomacy while preserving the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action framework. But with the JCPOA in tatters, any new deal must be airtight. “We cannot afford another false dawn,” said a former Foreign Office official who worked on the original nuclear accord.
The Treasury is also watching closely. Sanctions relief could unlock billions in frozen Iranian assets, but it also raises questions about money laundering and arms trafficking. Iranian proxies in Yemen and Lebanon remain well-funded, and any influx of hard currency could escalate regional tensions.
Yet the alternative is grimmer. A failure to reach a deal could trigger a diplomatic crisis, prompting Iran to accelerate its nuclear programme and pushing the region toward open conflict. Israel has repeatedly warned it will act unilaterally if diplomacy fails, and the US has reinforced its naval presence in the Gulf.
Vance’s choice of words resonates with seasoned diplomats. “Not there yet” echoes the language of the 2020 Afghan peace talks, which ended in chaos. No one in Whitehall wants a repeat. “There is a window, but it is closing,” the senior diplomat added. “We are all watching, and we are all holding our breath.”
