The fragile ceasefire in the Gulf just took a bullet. US and Iranian forces exchanged direct strikes overnight, shattering the uneasy calm that has held since last month's backchannel deal. This isn't a proxy skirmish. This is the real thing.
Details remain murky, but the pattern is clear: a US drone strike hit an Iranian naval patrol boat near the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran responded with a volley of short-range missiles aimed at a US logistics vessel. No casualties reported. Yet. But the politics are already bloody.
Whitehall sources are in full crisis mode. I'm told the Foreign Office has convened an emergency Cobra meeting. The fear is palpable. This could unravel everything.
The ceasefire, brokered by Oman and blessed by Beijing, was always a house of cards. It bought time. It didn't buy peace. Hardliners in both Tehran and Washington were never comfortable with it. They have been waiting for a spark. This feels like they got their wish.
Think about the timing. The US President is facing a primary challenge from his own party. The Iranian Supreme Leader is rumoured to be ill. Domestic pressure in both capitals is intense. A limited military exchange can serve domestic political ends. It is a dangerous game.
European capitals are scrambling. Paris and Berlin have issued joint statements appealing for restraint. London is quieter. I am hearing that No. 10 does not want to be seen taking sides publicly. The official line will be 'de-escalation.' But privately, the mood is grim. One cabinet minister described the situation to me as 'an open wound that just got infected.'
What happens next? Three scenarios. First, both sides step back, claim victory, and return to the ceasefire. Possible but unlikely given the escalation dynamic. Second, a limited tit-for-tat continues without full war. Think 2019 but worse. Third, a miscalculation leads to a broader conflict. That keeps diplomats awake at night.
Oil prices have already spiked. The markets are jittery. Global shipping routes are at risk. The Gulf is a tinderbox and someone just struck a match.
The key question is whether the backchannels still exist. Oman, the UAE, and Iraq all have lines to Tehran. The Swiss protect US interests there. But those channels were designed for negotiation, not crisis management. Trust is in short supply.
I am hearing from a well-placed diplomatic source that the Iranian retaliation was carefully calibrated. They did not aim for casualties. That suggests a desire to avoid full war. But it also sends a message: do not test us.
The US administration is now boxed in. Domestic pressure to respond 'strongly' will be intense. The President cannot afford to look weak. But a major escalation could cost him swing states in November. It is a political minefield.
Whitehall is watching closely. The UK has naval assets in the region. Any conflagration would draw us in. The Defence Secretary is due to meet with US counterparts tomorrow. Expect a flurry of calls.
For now, the ceasefire is on life support. The question is whether anyone wants to save it. Hardliners on both sides may prefer the chaos.
This story is moving fast. I am told more strikes are possible within hours. We are in dangerous territory. The Gulf never sleeps, and tonight it is wide awake.
