The ink is barely dry on the Israel-Lebanon maritime border agreement, a framework hailed by the UK and US as a historic de-escalation. But for working families in Manchester and Middlesbrough, the real question is not about geopolitical lines on a map. It is about the cost at the pump and the squeeze on household budgets.
The deal, brokered by Washington with quiet backing from Whitehall, unlocks disputed gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean. Israel gets the Karish field, Lebanon gets the Qana field. Both sides can now drill for energy. For a country like Lebanon, on its knees after years of crisis, this could be a lifeline. For Israeli energy firms, it is a green light for extraction.
But here is the kitchen-table reality. The UK does not import directly from these fields. The price of petrol and household gas in Britain is set by the global wholesale market. Any increase in global supply - even from the Med - can in theory knock prices down. However, the process is slow. The oil giants will not rush to drill new fields on the back of a handshake. Investment cycles take years. Meanwhile, standing in a queue at a Tesco petrol station, none of that matters.
What matters is the government's windfall tax on oil and gas profits. The fact that energy firms have banked billions while families choose between heating and eating. The 'Real Economy' does not respond well to diplomatic handshakes. It responds to cash in pockets, to wage rises that keep pace with inflation, to a state that intervenes when the market fails.
The unions have been quiet on this one, and they should not be. This deal is about resource extraction. It is about who controls the wealth beneath the seabed. In the North Sea, we have seen the same story: private companies take the profit, the public takes the pollution and the volatile prices. Will the Lebanon-Israel deal be different? Do not hold your breath.
The regional inequality angle is stark. The South East of England, with its financial services and its proximity to Westminster, will analyse this as a 'diplomatic win'. But in the North West, where I grew up, we watch how energy prices hit the old mill towns hardest. The homes that struggle to retain heat. The families that trim the budget on food to pay the gas bill.
We need a government that sees foreign policy through the lens of the cost of living. This deal is a step for peace, and peace is to be welcomed. But do not conflate a diplomatic framework with a solution to the price of your weekly shop. The bosses of Shell and BP are not rushing to share their new profits from the Med with the British taxpayer. They are more likely to invest in share buybacks.
The silence from Downing Street on domestic energy price reform is deafening. This morning, the Prime Minister shook hands with leaders in Tel Aviv. This afternoon, his ministers should be explaining how this stops the next energy price cap rise. If they cannot, they are playing a different game to the one being played at my kitchen table.
Let the deal be the start of a wider conversation. Not about borders in the sea, but about borders in society. The border between the haves and the have-nots. The border between those who can absorb a 50 per cent energy price hike and those who cannot. That is the real economy. And it is roaring."
