A newly declassified British intelligence dossier has laid bare the foundational pillar of the Sino-Russian strategic partnership: a sprawling energy pact that locks the two nations into a long-term alignment of interests, with profound implications for global climate policy and energy markets. The document, obtained by our newsroom, details a series of agreements that extend well beyond the well-publicised gas pipelines, revealing coordinated efforts to bypass Western financial systems in energy trade and to jointly develop Arctic hydrocarbon reserves.
The dossier describes a relationship that is transactional yet deeply structural. China, the world's largest energy consumer, secures a stable supply of oil and natural gas from Russia, which in turn gains a reliable revenue stream essential for its war economy and societal stability. This interdependence creates a mutually reinforcing loop. Russia's pivot to Asian markets after Western sanctions accelerated a process that had been in motion for years. The Power of Siberia pipeline now funnels up to 38 billion cubic metres of gas annually from East Siberia to China. But the dossier reveals that this is only the visible part of the network. Behind the scenes, joint ventures in liquefied natural gas (LNG) and nuclear power generation are deepening integration.
British intelligence analysts point to a specific clause in the energy contracts that is seldom discussed: they are priced in euros and roubles, not dollars, and increasingly settled through China's Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS). This is an explicit de-dollarisation move, reducing the leverage of the US and Europe over both nations. The dossier warns that this parallel financial architecture, growing around energy flows, acts as a stabiliser for the autocratic regimes, insulating them from financial sanctions.
From a climate perspective, the pact is a stark reality check. The extraction of Siberia's fossil fuels is among the most carbon-intensive on the planet. Methane leakage from Russian gas infrastructure is chronically underreported, and the Arctic oil projects the dossier mentions could release millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent each year. The pact essentially locks in fossil fuel use for decades, undermining global emission reduction targets. This is not an abstract future problem. It is happening now. The Yamal LNG plant, part-owned by China's Silk Road Fund, is already flaring gas and venting methane in the pristine tundra.
The British dossier suggests that the energy pact is not a marriage of convenience but a consolidation of survival strategies. Each nation brings what the other lacks. China provides capital and construction capacity. Russia supplies natural resources and overland transit routes that bypass naval choke points. The military dimension is also clear: the Arctic is becoming a theatre of both resource extraction and military posturing. Russian and Chinese joint military exercises near disputed waters are increasingly framed around protecting energy infrastructure.
This is not to say the relationship is frictionless. The dossier notes that pricing disputes and quality concerns have led to delays in some contracts. Russia prefers long-term indexed deals. China pushes for spot market pricing. Yet the underlying logic remains: both nations see themselves as revisionist powers challenging the post-Cold War order, and energy is the glue that holds their alliance together.
The implications for Europe and the United Kingdom are direct. Any attempt to further isolate Russia economically will require equal pressure on China. But China is deeply embedded in global supply chains for renewable energy technologies. The dossier states that Chinese firms export solar panels and wind turbines to Russia, often repurposed to maintain fossil fuel operations. This blurring of the line between green technology and fossil fuel infrastructure is a grey area the British government is now scrutinising.
In summary, the intelligence dossier paints a picture of a strategic energy pact that is ruthlessly calculated and alarmingly effective. It is not about ideology. It is about physics and economics. Fossil fuels flow from one authoritarian state to another, and with them flows geopolitical stability for the regimes involved. For the climate, for energy security and for the balance of power, the data is clear. The world must reckon with this reality, not as a future threat but as a present fact.
