A stark assessment from British intelligence has laid bare the foundations of the burgeoning partnership between China and Russia, warning that their alliance is hardening into a durable, strategic axis. The report, circulated among Whitehall officials and seen by this newspaper, concludes that economic necessity and shared opposition to Western-led global institutions are the twin pillars propping up a relationship that poses a growing threat to European and global security.
For those of us who track the price of energy and the cost of living, the implications are immediate. The intelligence assessment makes plain that Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the subsequent sanctions war, have accelerated a pivot that was already underway. Moscow, cut off from Western capital and technology, now looks almost exclusively to Beijing. In return, China gains access to vast energy reserves and a reliable, if battered, partner in challenging the post-1991 world order.
The report notes that the relationship is not one of equals. China is the senior partner, its economy dwarfing Russia's. But it is a partnership of deep interdependence. Russia provides oil, gas and military hardware that China needs. China provides the cash, the electronics and the diplomatic cover that Russia needs. It is a marriage of convenience, but convenience can be a powerful glue.
For working people in Britain, the message is grim. The report warns that this deepening alliance will prolong the war in Ukraine, keeping energy prices high and supply chains stretched. It also raises the spectre of a more coordinated challenge to the international rules-based system that has governed trade and security for decades. The days when the West could dictate terms are receding.
The intelligence assessment is careful to note the strains. There is historical mistrust between the two giants. China is wary of becoming entangled in a long war, and Russia resents its junior status. But the analysis argues that the short-term benefits for both regimes outweigh the long-term risks. For President Putin, the Chinese lifeline is existential. For President Xi, the partnership is a useful weapon in his contest with America.
What does this mean for the kitchen table? It means that the cost of living crisis, fuelled by energy shocks and supply disruptions, is not a temporary blip. It is a structural shift. The report implicitly criticises the government's failure to insulate the British economy from these geopolitical shocks. It calls for a more robust industrial strategy, one that reduces dependency on both China and Russia, particularly in critical areas like energy, rare earths and semiconductors.
Union leaders and campaigners have long argued that the government's laissez-faire approach leaves workers exposed to global market forces. This intelligence assessment adds urgency to their demands. If the alliance between Beijing and Moscow is indeed hardening, then the need for a national economic plan, one that protects jobs and incomes, becomes not a political choice but a strategic imperative.
The report ends with a warning: the China-Russia axis is not a temporary alignment but a structural feature of the new global landscape. For too long, policymakers in London and other Western capitals have hoped that the relationship would crack under its own contradictions. The intelligence community is now telling them to stop hoping and start acting. The cost of inaction will be borne by ordinary families, struggling to heat their homes and feed their children, while the world's two largest autocrats tighten their embrace.
