The game is on. JD Vance, Trump’s running mate, let it slip in a quiet aside to a pool reporter in Washington. ‘Very close,’ he said. Not done. Not signed. But close. The circuits in Whitehall immediately lit up.
British diplomats have been here before. The 2015 JCPOA was a masterpiece of multilateralism. Then Trump tore it up in 2018. The memory is raw. But this time is different. This time the talks bypass the usual channels. They are direct US-Iran, with the UK watching from the wings. Nervous glances exchanged at the FCDO.
The phrase ‘very close’ is deliberate. It gives the White House room to move. If it collapses, they blame Iran. If it succeeds, they claim victory. Vance is a hawk, but he knows optics. A nuclear deal before November is a political prize. It neutralises a foreign policy headache for Trump. It also gives the UK a headache of its own.
Why? Because a deal changes the calculus in the Middle East. It releases frozen Iranian assets. It opens the door for oil. It also complicates the UK’s position on Iran’s proxies. Hezbollah. The Houthis. The militias in Iraq. British intelligence has been running hard assumptions based on a beleaguered Iran. A deal shifts the ground.
Labour sources say Starmer’s team is quiet. They do not want to criticise a potential diplomatic breakthrough. But they are also wary. The last deal was used as a cudgel by the Tories. ‘Weak on Iran,’ they said. Now the calculus has flipped. A Labour government would face pressure to follow suit. Close to the US? Or independent? The usual dance.
The foreign secretary is said to be ‘monitoring closely’. That is diplomatic code for ‘scrambling’. The UK has no seat at the table. But it has assets on the ground. The Gulf bases. The listening stations on Cyprus. The links with Mossad. All of it is now relevant. The deal, if it comes, will have a British annex. Quietly prepared. Ready to deploy.
One diplomat put it bluntly: ‘We are the wingman. The US flies the plane. We handle the chaff.’ That means backroom deals. Intelligence sharing. Sanctions relief coordination. The UK will be expected to fall in line. But there is a domestic angle. The Iranian diaspora in London is substantial. Activists will demand no concessions on human rights. Labour’s left flank will ask why the UK is cosying up to the regime.
Vance’s comment was a trial balloon. Let’s see who flinches. The Saudis will be unhappy. The Israelis will be furious. The British position is to smile and nod. Then wait for the fine print. Because the devil is always in the details.
Sources at the National Security Secretariat confirm a ‘task force’ has been formed. Low-key. Cross-departmental. They are gaming scenarios. Best case: a deal that curbs enrichment and brings stability. Worst case: a partial agreement that collapses and leaves Iran closer to a bomb. The middle case? That’s the one that keeps diplomats up at night.
For now, the word is ‘close’. Not done. But close enough to make Whitehall hold its breath.
