The thin veneer of peace in the Gulf has been torn apart. US airstrikes on Iranian naval positions near the Strait of Hormuz have abruptly ended the tentative ceasefire, sending shockwaves through Whitehall and Downing Street. The trigger? An attack on a British-flagged tanker, the MV *Pride of Glasgow*, which was disabled by a suspected Iranian drone off the coast of Fujairah. No casualties reported, but the political fallout is immense.
I’m told Number 10 was blindsided. The PM was in a virtual call with European leaders when the news broke. Sources describe a “tense” atmosphere. The Joint Intelligence Committee is in emergency session. The key question: Did Washington co-ordinate? The White House insists it was a “necessary, proportionate response.” Don’t believe it. This was a message. And it’s landed.
Westminster is already in revolt mode. Labour’s shadow foreign secretary is demanding a Commons statement. Tory backbenchers are split: the hawkish ‘European Research Group’ are baying for a stronger British naval presence. The usual suspects on the left are crying escalation. The men in suits at the Foreign Office are working the phones to Tehran, Baghdad, and Riyadh. Quiet diplomacy. The sort that never makes the papers.
But here’s the real story: the shipping lanes. Every insurer in London is recalculating risk. The Baltic Dry Index will spike before the week is out. The Treasury is modelling oil price shocks. Petrol at the pumps? Already creeping up. This isn’t just a crisis for diplomats. It hits the cost of living. And that, my friends, is electoral poison.
One minister whispered to me: “We’re one tanker attack away from a full deployment.” That’s the fear. The PM is boxed in. He can’t afford to look weak on defence, but his own MPs are wary of another Middle Eastern quagmire. The polling data? Labour opening up a lead. This is a gift for Starmer.
The coming days are crucial. The US has signalled more strikes are possible. Iran is vowing revenge. The back channels are buzzing. Who blinked? Nobody. That’s the problem. In this game, everyone loses.
