The World Health Organisation has sounded the alarm. A new Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo is spiralling out of control. It is not just the virus. It is the war. The WHO calls it a 'catastrophic collision' of disease and conflict. And they are right.
Let me give you the inside track. The outbreak is in North Kivu. That is a region scarred by years of armed violence. Militia groups control large swathes of territory. Aid workers cannot reach the sick. The dead are left unburied. And the virus spreads.
This is not the first time we have seen this. The 2014 West Africa outbreak was bad. This could be worse. Because here, the conflict is not a backdrop. It is the engine of transmission.
The numbers are stark. 43 cases so far. 15 deaths. But the real number is unknown. The WHO admits that. Surveillance is patchy. Many cases go unreported. The virus is moving under the radar.
Behind the scenes, there is panic. The WHO's top official in the region, Dr Michael Ryan, is a cool head. He said this is 'a perfect storm'. That phrase is carefully chosen. It means the system is overwhelmed.
What is the government doing? Not enough. Kinshasa is a long way from Goma. The local health infrastructure is broken. It has been broken by years of neglect and conflict. Vaccination teams are being attacked. Health workers have been abducted. The message from the frontlines is clear: we cannot do our job.
And the politics? This is a crucial point. The outbreak is a test for the WHO. It was criticised for its slow response to the 2014 crisis. It cannot afford another failure. So it is throwing resources at the problem. But resources cannot buy peace. They cannot stop the bullets.
The United Nations is also involved. It has a peacekeeping mission in the region, MONUSCO. But its mandate is limited. It cannot force armed groups to allow access. The UN is stuck.
So what happens next? The worst-case scenario is a full-blown epidemic. One that spreads to major cities like Goma and Bukavu. From there, it could cross borders into Uganda and Rwanda. A regional catastrophe. The WHO is clear: this is not a problem for the DRC alone. It is a global health security threat.
The bottom line: the virus is winning. The conflict is a headwind. Without a political solution, the outbreak will continue. The WHO can sound the alarm all it wants. But it is the guns that will have the final say.
