The question hanging over Westminster as the leaves turn brown is simple but loaded: who will be Britain’s next chancellor? With the autumn budget looming and a prime minister whose grip on the economic narrative is slipping, the race to succeed Jeremy Hunt has become a quiet but fierce battle. For those of us who watch the real economy—the price of a loaf, the strength of a union vote, the gap between a pay cheque and a rent cheque—this is not just a leadership contest. It is a fork in the road for millions of working families.
Speculation has focused on three names: the current Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch, known for her free-market zeal; the Levelling Up Secretary Michael Gove, a veteran with a reputation for competence; and the Treasury Chief Secretary John Glen, a dark horse who has quietly impressed with his grasp of fiscal detail. Each represents a different flavour of Conservative economic thinking, and each would shape the autumn statement in profoundly different ways.
Badenoch, the favourite of the party’s right, has argued for tax cuts as a panacea for stagnation. But her critics point to her record on regional inequality: under her watch, the gap between London and the North has widened. She talks of “levelling up” but her policies have left many northern towns feeling levelled down. If she becomes chancellor, expect a budget heavy on supply-side reforms and light on support for struggling households. A cut to corporation tax, perhaps, but little help for those freezing in poorly insulated homes.
Gove, by contrast, is a more enigmatic figure. He has a track record of big spending announcements, from the Towns Fund to the Shared Prosperity Fund. But he also carries the baggage of austerity-era decisions. His supporters argue he understands the need to invest in infrastructure and public services. Detractors say his budgets have been heavy on rhetoric and light on delivery. For union leaders, Gove is a known quantity: a minister who talks a good game on workers’ rights but has presided over real-terms pay cuts for public sector staff.
Then there is John Glen. A former management consultant with a calm demeanour, he is the least known to the public but perhaps the most reassuring to the markets. He has spent months behind the scenes in the Treasury, working on inflation forecasting and debt management. His admirers say he is a safe pair of hands. But safe hands do not always help those in stormy seas. Critics worry he lacks the political heft to push through the radical changes needed to address the cost-of-living crisis.
Whoever gets the job faces a daunting in-tray. The autumn budget must navigate stagnant growth, inflation still above target, and a public sector that is on the brink of industrial action. Teachers, nurses, and rail workers are all balloting for strikes. The new chancellor will have to decide whether to meet their pay demands or risk more walkouts. Meanwhile, mortgage rates remain high, food inflation is stubborn, and energy bills are set to rise again in January.
For the people I speak to in working men’s clubs and community centres across the North, the identity of the next chancellor matters less than what they will actually do. Will they scrap the two-child benefit cap? Will they raise the minimum wage to a genuine living wage? Will they invest in public transport so that a bus doesn’t cost a day’s wages? These are the kitchen-table questions that the autumn budget must answer.
But politics is a game of personalities. The choice of chancellor will signal the direction of travel for the entire government. A Badenoch appointment would tell voters that the party is doubling down on low-tax, low-regulation ideology. A Gove chancellorship would suggest a more interventionist, but still fiscally conservative, approach. And a Glen budget would likely be cautious, technocratic, and incremental.
One thing is certain: the window for action is narrowing. With a general election due within two years, the next chancellor has a limited time to turn around perceptions of economic competence. If they fail, they may not just lose their job but hand the keys to Downing Street to a Labour Party that is waiting in the wings.
For now, the Westminster guessing game continues. But out here, in the real economy, the price of bread has risen again. The children are waiting for their free school meals. And the union reps are sharpening their pencils for the next ballot. The autumn budget cannot come soon enough.
