The prime minister’s phone hasn’t stopped ringing. Downing Street is in a quiet panic. Xi Jinping is in Pyongyang, and the optics are unsettling. A man who rarely leaves Beijing is spending two days with Kim Jong Un. This isn’t a social call. It’s a message. To Washington. To Seoul. To London.
The Foreign Office has been scrambling. Briefings this morning were terse. “We are monitoring the situation closely,” they said. Translation: We have no idea what’s being discussed behind those closed doors. But the fear is clear. A Sino-North Korean axis would upend the balance of power in East Asia. Britain, with its post-Brexit pivot to the Indo-Pacific, cannot afford to be a bystander.
The timing is everything. Domestic pressure on Xi is mounting. Trade wars. Tech bans. A slowing economy. What better way to distract than a display of continental solidarity? North Korea gives China a lever. A nuclear-armed neighbour that can rattle the region on command. Xi isn’t there to swap pleasantries. He’s there to test the limits of American patience.
And what of Kim? He needs fuel for his economy. Sanctions bite. China is his only lifeline. In return, Xi gets a proxy. A bargaining chip. The message to the West is clear: push China on trade, and we can turn up the heat on the Korean Peninsula. It’s old-school realpolitik. And it works.
Inside Whitehall, there is talk of a new arms race. Not just in missiles, but in influence. Britain has been deepening ties with Japan and Australia. AUKUS is the crown jewel. But if China and North Korea formalise a military alliance, the calculus changes. The Foreign Secretary is due to fly to Seoul next week. Expect a flurry of diplomatic activity.
The opposition is sharpening its knives. Labour is demanding a statement in the Commons. “The government has been asleep at the wheel,” one shadow minister told me. They want a clearer commitment to regional security. A pledge to increase naval presence. The usual political point-scoring. But behind the bluster, there is genuine concern.
The real question is whether Xi can control his ally. Kim is unpredictable. He craves legitimacy. A state visit from the Chinese leader gives him that. But it also gives him cover. Cover to test another missile. To upgrade his nuclear program. Xi’s presence is a shield. And Britain, for all its diplomatic heft, has limited leverage.
Downing Street’s strategy is to work through the UN. Strengthen sanctions enforcement. But that requires Russian cooperation. Good luck with that. The alternative is bilateral deterrence. More exercises with South Korea. More intelligence sharing. But that costs money. And the Treasury is griping about defence spending already.
What happens next depends on what Xi says in his farewell speech. If he offers economic aid without conditions, the game changes. If he calls for denuclearisation, it’s a fudge. Either way, the visit is a reminder that the world is shifting. Britain can either adapt or be left behind.
The lobby is buzzing. Everyone is waiting for the No. 10 readout of the prime minister’s call with President Yoon. Expect it to be bland. But the subtext is electric. This is a test of the post-Brexit foreign policy. So far, the grades are average. But the term is just beginning.
