Xi Jinping touched down in Pyongyang this morning. State media calls it a 'historic visit.' It is the first by a Chinese leader in 14 years. But behind the smiles, the Westminster machine is grinding. MI6 analysts have spent the last 48 hours stripping apart what this reset really means. The official line is 'strengthened bilateral ties.' The unofficial whisper is leverage.
North Korea needs China. Badly. Sanctions bite. The economy is a mess. Kim Jong Un needs a lifeline. Xi can offer trade, investment, a diplomatic shield. But he will want something in return. The obvious ask is a commitment to denuclearisation talks. But does Xi believe Kim will ever give up his nukes? Unlikely. More probable is a staging post for Beijing's influence over Korean Peninsula stability. A counterweight to US alliances with Japan and South Korea.
UK intelligence circles are watching the so-called 'China option.' If Xi can force Kim back to the table, it strengthens China's hand globally. But if it is just a photo op with no substance? Then Beijing is simply consolidating its sphere of influence. Either way, it is a loss for Washington. The State Department is already rattled. UK foreign office briefings have been quietly emphasising the need for 'maximal pressure.' But that is a tired script.
There is also the domestic angle. Xi needs a foreign policy win. His Belt and Road initiative is facing headwinds. Trade tensions with the US continue. A successful summit in Pyongyang lets him project an image of statesmanship. The party faithful love a tough line with the West. This visit plays well at home.
For Kim, the calculus is survival. He gets Chinese investment and a veneer of legitimacy. Plus a chance to fracture the US-led coalition. Remember, Hanoi collapsed because Kim wanted to move too fast. He will not make the same mistake. Expect a long game. Small steps. Lots of bluster about 'denuclearising the Korean peninsula.' But the real ask is for sanctions relief without giving up weapons.
Backbench MPs on the China Select Committee are demanding a hard look at UK-China relations. Some Tories want a tougher line on Beijing. But Number 10 is cautious. Trade. Always trade. The UK needs China's market post-Brexit. So the foreign secretary will issue carefully worded statements. Call for 'constructive engagement.' Meanwhile, officials will quietly gauge the fallout from other allies.
This is not 2019. Then, Trump was in the White House. Now, Biden is focused on Russia and domestic issues. Xi sees a vacuum. He is filling it. The UK's role? To watch and assess. To feed intelligence to Five Eyes partners. To nudge, not to shout. That is the lobby consensus. Realpolitik, bloody, and undramatic.
In the pub after hours, off the record, spooks admit they are not sure. Could this be the start of a genuine thaw? Or just another power play by a weakening regime? One thing is certain: the lunch is long, the toasts are many, and the real deal will be struck behind closed doors. Watch for the joint statement. Count the mentions of 'shared security.' That is where the truth hides.
