Chinese President Xi Jinping’s upcoming visit to Pyongyang is being parsed by UK diplomats as a move to reinforce Beijing’s leverage in the region, with energy security and strategic stability as the subtext. The visit, the first by Xi since 2019, occurs amid North Korea’s accelerated missile tests and deepening isolation. For the UK, which maintains diplomatic relations with Pyongyang but has no embassy there, the implications ripple beyond geopolitics into the broader calculus of climate and energy transitions.
North Korea, a country with abundant coal reserves but chronic energy shortages, presents a paradox. Its coal exports to China, once a vital source of foreign currency, were banned under UN sanctions in 2017. Yet satellite data reveals continued smuggling across the Tumen River. China, meanwhile, has shifted from being a net coal importer to a cautious consumer of its own vast deposits, but the North Korean coal loophole remains a persistent irritant for Western sanctions regimes. Xi’s visit may signal a soft reopening of trade lines, which could undermine global efforts to reduce coal dependency.
From a climate perspective, North Korea’s energy diet is heavily reliant on coal and hydropower, the latter vulnerable to drought cycles linked to climate change. The country’s carbon intensity per unit of GDP is among the highest in the world, a factor rarely discussed in diplomatic briefings. China’s Belt and Road Initiative has extended into North Korea via the Rajin-Sonbong Economic Zone, where coal processing plants operate with Chinese investment. Any expansion of such projects would lock in fossil fuel infrastructure for decades, directly contradicting China’s 2060 carbon neutrality pledge.
UK diplomats in Beijing and at the UN are watching for signals. Britain, as a signatory to the Paris Agreement and a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council until 2024, has a stake in maintaining pressure on both China and North Korea to abide by sanctions and climate goals. The Foreign Office’s climate envoy has previously stated that “no country can be an island in climate terms.” North Korea’s emissions, though small globally (roughly 0.2% of the world total), represent a risk of diversion: if China normalises economic ties with Pyongyang, it could weaken the case for other states to enforce climate commitments.
However, the narrative here is not simple morality. Europe’s own energy crisis following the conflict in Ukraine has forced some nations back to coal. The UK, for instance, delayed the closure of its Ratcliffe-on-Soar coal plant after Russia’s invasion. This context tempers any righteous tone. Xi’s visit is a pragmatic move to secure China’s border stability and energy sources, not an ideological embrace. North Korea offers little in terms of renewable energy prospects; its mountainous terrain could host wind or solar, but the regime lacks capital and expertise.
Technological solutions exist but are stymied by politics. Small modular nuclear reactors, which the UK is now pursuing, could in theory provide energy to North Korea without carbon emissions, but such a project would require a diplomatic revolution. Alternatively, China could offer solar panel factories or grid improvements, but these would likely be token gestures. The UK’s own energy transition model, heavily reliant on offshore wind and interconnectors with Europe, is inapplicable to a hermit state.
Underlying all this is the physics of the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide does not respect borders. The IPCC’s latest report, which I cited in my earlier analysis, shows that any delay in emissions reduction commits us to higher temperature rise. Every new coal plant, whether in North Korea or elsewhere, accelerates the timeline. Xi’s visit, with its surface focus on friendship and dialogue, may yield no immediate climate outcomes. But the signal it sends to other nations about the permissible level of cooperation with a sanctioned state could have second-order effects on global climate governance.
In conclusion, UK diplomats are right to watch closely. The visit is not a paradigm shift, but a stress test for the idea that climate and security interests can be aligned. Energy transitions are inherently geopolitical. North Korea sits at the intersection of these forces: isolated, carbon intensive, and unpredictable. Xi’s steps there will be measured in tonnes of coal, megawatts of power, and degrees of geopolitical stability.
