The news of Xi Jinping's state visit to North Korea has sent a jolt through Whitehall. The official line is 'strengthening traditional friendship'. But in the darkened corridors of the intelligence services, the real conversation is about ballistic missiles.
British intelligence has been tracking a worrying pattern. North Korea's recent missile tests have shown unexpected range and accuracy. The suspicion is that Chinese technical expertise may have been involved. Not officially, of course. But through back channels, academic exchanges, or even rogue state-owned enterprises.
One source in the intelligence community put it bluntly: 'We are watching this very closely. The Chinese are playing a double game. They talk about denuclearisation at the UN, but they keep feeding the North Korean military-industrial complex.'
The timing is telling. Xi's visit comes just weeks after a failed summit between Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump. The message is clear: North Korea has other options. And China is happy to provide them.
But what does Xi want in return? The conventional wisdom is that China wants a buffer state. A compliant North Korea that doesn't collapse and send refugees flooding across the border. But there is a more cynical interpretation: China wants to test US resolve. By propping up North Korea, they force Washington to keep its attention on Asia, diverting resources from Europe.
This is where the politics get dangerous for Number 10. The Prime Minister's position has been to support the US line on North Korea: maximum pressure until denuclearisation. But if China is now undercutting that strategy, the UK must choose sides. Back the Americans and risk a trade war with Beijing? Or appease China and anger Washington?
The chatter in the Lobby suggests a split in the cabinet. The Foreign Secretary is said to be hawkish. He sees this as a chance to reset UK-US relations post-Brexit. The Chancellor, however, is worried about the economic cost. The UK's future trade deals depend on Chinese goodwill.
Meanwhile, the pollsters are watching. The public doesn't care about North Korea. It's a distant threat. But if the government looks weak on security, it could cost them at the ballot box. The opposition is already sharpening its attack lines: 'The Conservatives have lost control of foreign policy.'
Back in Pyongyang, the red carpets are out. Xi and Kim will smile for the cameras. But in the security services, the analysts are parsing every frame for clues. Is there a new missile design on the parade ground? Are the delegations meeting behind closed doors? The answers matter for London.
A former MI6 officer told me: 'This is the beginning of a new phase. The Cold War is back, but with different players. The UK needs to decide whether it is still a major player or just a spectator.'
For now, the official response is measured. A spokesperson for the Prime Minister said: 'We note the visit and will continue to monitor the situation.' But behind the scenes, the crisis planning has begun. The fear is that Xi's visit is not a photo op but a strategic shift. And the UK is caught in the middle.
