Sources close to the Ukrainian president have disclosed a confidential list of demands that Kyiv insists must be met before any formal negotiations with Russia can begin. The five conditions, handed to key Western allies in the past 48 hours, represent the hardest line yet from Volodymyr Zelensky’s administration and suggest a hardening of positions as the war grinds towards its third year.
First, Russia must withdraw all troops and equipment from Ukrainian territory, including Crimea, which was annexed in 2014. Second, the Kremlin must agree to a binding international security guarantee for Ukraine, backed by NATO or a coalition of willing states. Third, all war crimes investigations must be allowed to proceed unimpeded, with suspects subject to extradition. Fourth, Russia must pay reparations for the destruction caused during the invasion. Fifth, Ukraine must be granted a clear path to EU and NATO membership.
The document, which I have reviewed, was circulated to senior officials in the US, UK, France and Germany. It appears designed to test the West’s commitment to Ukraine’s maximalist position. A senior Ukrainian official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told me: ‘These are not starting points. They are the only basis for a just peace.’
But this list is also a signal to Moscow. It tells Putin that Zelensky’s team is not bluffing. Having survived the fall of Bakhmut, the counteroffensive and the grinding attrition of the Donbas, they believe time is on their side. The conditions are structured to be unacceptable to the Kremlin. They demand capitulation, not compromise.
Western diplomats are divided. Some see the conditions as a necessary show of strength. Others worry they foreclose any chance of a diplomatic off-ramp. One Whitehall source described the list as ‘a negotiating position that looks like a victory parade.’
The timing is critical. Reports from Moscow suggest Putin is preparing for a protracted war, but also leaving cracks open for talks. Earlier this week, he repeated his openness to negotiations ‘based on the new realities.’ That phrase – ‘new realities’ – is code for Russian control of occupied territories. Zelensky’s conditions do not accept any reality other than the 1991 borders.
Behind the scenes, the real story is about weapons. The conditions are less a peace plan than a shopping list. They come as Ukraine’s allies debate the next tranche of military aid. By drawing a line in the sand, Zelensky is testing whether the West will back his maximalist demands or urge him to bargain.
The clock is ticking. Winter is coming. Energy grids are being targeted again. And in Kyiv, the calculation is brutally simple: without more air defence, long-range missiles and artillery, there will be no negotiating leverage. The conditions are a bet that the West will keep the arms coming.
I have learned that the US administration has not formally responded. But informal signals suggest unease. The phrase ‘negotiations are a process’ has been heard in Washington. That is diplomatic code for: ‘Your conditions are too rigid.’
Tomorrow, I will have more from sources inside the Ukrainian security council. For now, this is the story: Zelensky’s allies have set terms that Moscow will almost certainly reject. The question is whether Kyiv is ready to adjust them. Or whether this war has already passed the point of no return.
