The news broke late last night. US and Japanese troops are conducting joint exercises in the Australian outback. This is not routine. It is a signal. Washington and Tokyo are deepening their military coordination in the Pacific. The absence of UK forces from these drills is conspicuous. But don't read too much into it. Yet.
Whitehall sources insist the UK remains a 'reliable and committed' Five Eyes partner. The language is deliberate. It is defensive. There is a quiet anxiety here. The UK's strategic tilt to the Indo-Pacific, announced with great fanfare in the Integrated Review, has not translated into boots on the ground. The Americans notice. The Japanese notice.
The question is simple. Does the UK have the capacity to project power in the Pacific? The answer, for now, is no. The Royal Navy is stretched. The Army is shrinking. The RAF can send a few Typhoons. That is not enough.
There is a deeper game at play. The Five Eyes alliance is not just about intelligence sharing. It is about military interoperability. These exercises test that. The UK's absence raises eyebrows. But insiders say there is a longer game. The UK is focusing on cyber and maritime security. It is a division of labour. The US gets it. But the optics are bad.
Cabinet sources say the Prime Minister is alive to the issue. There are talks about a more visible UK presence next year. A carrier strike group? Possibly. But that depends on money. The Treasury is not keen. The Defence Secretary is fighting for more resources. It is a familiar story.
The timing is awkward. The UK is negotiating a trade deal with Australia. The Pacific is central to that. The message from Canberra is clear. Show up. The UK is showing up in words. Not enough in actions.
So what does this mean for the Five Eyes? The partnership remains strong. But there is a subtle shift. The centre of gravity is moving east. The UK must adapt or risk being sidelined. The Americans are patient. But they expect contribution. Words are cheap. The Pacific is not.
The backbench is restless. Some Tory MPs are asking questions. They want a more robust defence posture. They worry the UK is losing influence. Labour is watching. They will use this. The politics here are tricky.
I spoke to a senior defence source. Off the record. They said: 'We are in the game. But we need to play harder.' That sums it up. The UK is a reliable partner. But reliability is not enough. The Pacific demands presence. The UK must deliver.
The next few months will be telling. Look for announcements on joint exercises. Look for a carrier deployment. Look for increased defence spending. If none come, the questions will get louder. The Five Eyes will hold. But trust is earned. Not given.
In the Lobby, there is a sense of watching and waiting. The UK's Pacific pivot is real. But it is slow. Too slow for some. The bush exercises are a reminder. The world is moving. The UK must keep up.
