LONDON. British intelligence has assessed that continued delays in reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal could lead to heightened instability in Gulf shipping lanes, threatening global oil supplies. The assessment, shared with allied governments in a classified briefing this week, warns that the stalled negotiations in Vienna have created a strategic vacuum that Iran may exploit to exert control over the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of the world's petroleum transits.
According to sources familiar with the briefing, MI6 analysts have concluded that Iran's patience with the diplomatic process is wearing thin. Tehran has indicated it will not return to the negotiating table if the United States does not lift sanctions by early March. The British intelligence community estimates that a breakdown in talks would increase the probability of Iranian harassment of commercial vessels or even a temporary blockade of the strait, an act that would trigger a sharp rise in oil prices and potentially draw a military response from the United States and its allies.
The assessment comes amid a flurry of diplomacy in Brussels and London, where the Foreign Office has been working to salvage the deal formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. The EU coordinator for the talks reported limited progress, blaming the impasse on "excessive demands" from both Washington and Tehran.
British officials stress that the intelligence warning is not a prediction of imminent confrontation but a risk analysis based on Iranian military exercises and rhetoric. In recent months, Iran has deployed missile batteries and drone systems along the coast of the Strait of Hormuz, while state media has broadcast footage of simulated strikes on naval targets.
The potential for miscalculation is high, said one former senior intelligence officer who spoke on condition of anonymity. The Iranians know the strait is their strategic trump card. If they feel the regime is threatened or if sanctions bite too hard, they will not hesitate to use it.
The warning has added urgency to the government's efforts to broker a compromise. A spokesman for the Prime Minister said that Britain remains committed to a diplomatic solution but is also reviewing contingency plans to ensure the free flow of oil. The Royal Navy has maintained a continuous presence in the Gulf alongside US and French forces, and the Ministry of Defence has confirmed that it is updating its rules of engagement.
Energy analysts note that any disruption in the Gulf would have immediate consequences for oil markets, which are already volatile due to the conflict in Ukraine and OPEC's reluctance to increase production. A 10% reduction in supply from the region could push oil above 120 dollars a barrel, triggering a global economic slowdown.
The intelligence community's assessment is a sobering reminder that the window for a nuclear deal is closing, said Sir Richard Dalton, a former British ambassador to Iran. Without a credible diplomatic off-ramp, the risk of a confrontation that neither side wants increases significantly.
The Foreign Office has declined to comment on the specifics of the intelligence report, but it is understood that the analysis has been circulated to the National Security Council. The United States has not publicly confirmed the warnings, though a State Department official said that Washington is closely monitoring the situation.
As the diplomatic clock ticks down, the challenge for London is to keep the focus on negotiations while preparing for the possibility of their failure. The stakes, as the intelligence assessment makes clear, could not be higher.
