The Canadians have done it again. A 16-year free trade agreement with the United States and Mexico. Locked in. No sunset clauses. No endless renegotiations. Just a solid, decade-plus commitment to open markets.
Meanwhile, in London, the Prime Minister's team is still trying to figure out which door to knock on. The UK's post-Brexit trade strategy has been a masterclass in indecision. Australia? A basic deal. New Zealand? Still waiting. The CPTPP? A toe in the water. But a comprehensive, long-term pact with North America? That remains a distant dream.
Let me tell you what happened in Ottawa. The Canadian government, led by a Liberal party that knows how to play the long game, quietly sealed this deal while the world was distracted. The USMCA was already in place, but this new agreement extends the framework, adding certainty for investors. The message is clear: North America is open for business, and it's not going anywhere.
Inside the Westminster village, there's a growing sense of panic. Backbenchers who campaigned on 'Global Britain' are now asking uncomfortable questions. Where are the big wins? The government's own internal polling shows the public is losing patience. The latest data from the YouGov tracker has 'Handling Brexit' as a net negative for the Tories for the first time since the deal was signed.
Sources close to the Trade Secretary admit they are 'exploring options' with Canada. But let's be real: Canada has just tied itself to the US and Mexico for 16 years. That's a long time to be waiting in the wings. The UK is currently a bit player in North American trade, with bilateral trade worth around £20bn a year. Canada-US trade is over £500bn. The asymmetry is staggering.
There's also the small matter of timing. The UK's own free trade agreement with Canada, rolled over from the EU deal, is due for review in 2024. But the Canadians, fresh from their North American triumph, have little incentive to offer generous terms. They have the leverage. They know it.
In the Lobby, the chatter is all about whether the government can pivot fast enough. Some are whispering about a 'Plan B' that involves prioritising deals with India and the Gulf states. But those talks are bogged down in their own complexities: visas, tariffs on cars, and the politics of human rights.
What does this mean for the Prime Minister? A headache. The Eurosceptic wing of the party is restless. They see Canada's deal as proof that leaving a bloc doesn't mean isolation if you play your cards right. The problem is, the UK hasn't played its cards well. The Brexit dividend has yet to materialise in trade terms.
One thing is certain: the narrative will be spun. The government will talk about 'high standards' and 'bespoke agreements'. But in the dark corners of Whitehall, the reality is sinking in. Canada has shown how it's done. The UK is still learning the game.
