The ghost of Colombia’s half-century civil war is haunting the country’s presidential election, and British oil executives are watching from their panelled boardrooms with a growing sense of unease. As the campaign heats up, the two leading candidates offer sharply divergent visions for the nation’s future, each carrying profound implications for the energy sector that has long been a pillar of the UK-Colombia economic relationship.
On one side stands Iván Duque, the conservative protégé of former President Álvaro Uribe, who promises to maintain the hardline security policies that have chipped away at the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) but failed to end kidnappings, bombings, and the daily toll of violence. On the other, Gustavo Petro, a former guerrilla and now leftist senator, who calls for a negotiated peace and a fundamental restructuring of the economy away from fossil fuels.
For British firms like BP and the London-listed oil explorer Amerisur, the stakes could not be higher. Colombia is the third-largest oil producer in Latin America, and British companies have invested billions in exploration and extraction. A Petro victory, with his pledge to halt new oil drilling and phase out existing projects, would send shockwaves through portfolio. Executives whisper of contingency plans and shareholder letters drafted but not yet sent.
But the threat is not merely economic. The civil war that has killed over 220,000 people and displaced millions continues to shape the nation’s political landscape. Duque’s aggressive stance has pushed the FARC into deeper jungles, but splinter groups and narco-traffickers fill the void. In the countryside, British engineers and security contractors work under armed guard, their movements tracked by satellite and local informants. The fear is that a change in government could alter the terms of engagement, making operations impossible or, worse, targeting them as symbols of foreign exploitation.
The campaign itself has turned ugly. Duque accuses Petro of being a “guerrilla in disguise,” while Petro paints Duque as a puppet of paramilitary interests. Violence on the campaign trail has left several candidates and security officials dead, and the rhetoric only inflames the polarised electorate. British diplomats in Bogotá have issued private warnings to corporate travellers, advising against venturing into certain provinces.
Yet there is a paradox here. The same digital technologies that allow British oil firms to monitor pipelines from remote control rooms also feed the conflict. Social media algorithms amplify hate speech, and encrypted messaging apps help rebels coordinate attacks. As the election nears, the risk of cyber interference grows. A state-sponsored disinformation campaign could tip the vote, or worse, trigger a flare-up that forces foreign companies to evacuate.
The intelligent response is not to panic but to prepare. British oil firms are now stress-testing their supply chains, hedging currency exposure, and reviewing force majeure clauses. They are also quietly engaging with both camps, offering technical expertise on energy transition in hopes of influencing the inevitable shift. For the truth is that the era of easy oil in Colombia is ending, regardless of who wins. The carbon budget and the peace dividend both demand a pivot.
What matters most is the user experience of Colombia’s society. If Petro wins, his government must demonstrate that peace and renewable energy create better livelihoods than war and oil. If Duque prevails, he must show that order and investment can coexist without repression. Either path requires a sophisticated understanding of the human cost of every algorithm that sets interest rates, targets drone strikes, or allocates drilling rights.
For now, the world watches. British executives cancel their Bogotá luncheons. The security teams drill emergency protocols. And in the mountains, the rain falls on abandoned coca fields and unexploded ordnance alike. The election will not end the civil war, but it will define the next chapter of a struggle that has already shaped the lives of millions. The only certainty is that the status quo is unsustainable, and the choices made in the coming weeks will echo through boardrooms and villages for decades.