The whispers started in the smoky corner of a Whitehall bar. A senior diplomat, off the record, nursing a single malt. “Colombia,” he said, “is the one to watch. If Petro loses, the whole house of cards could tumble.”
He was talking about Gustavo Petro, the leftist president whose victory in 2022 sent shockwaves through Washington. Now, with a presidential election looming in 2026, the game is on. UK diplomats are quietly preparing for a seismic shift in relations between Colombia and the United States.
The fear? A conservative victory in Bogotá. Not just any conservative. Rumours swirl around a candidate backed by the old guard, the ones who remember the days of Uribe and the free trade agreements. If that happens, the US-Colombia relationship – already strained under Petro’s critique of the War on Drugs – could swing back into alignment. But that alignment, for the UK, presents a problem.
Whitehall sources tell me the Foreign Office has been running scenarios. The best-case? A Petro re-election, continuity, a steady hand. The worst? A firebrand who pulls Colombia closer to Washington, but at the cost of alienating the region. “We have interests in Latin America,” another source confided. “We can’t afford to be seen as just an appendage of US policy.”
The polling data is ugly. Petro’s approval ratings have tanked. Economic stagnation, a health service in crisis, soaring crime. The right smells blood. And the US? Biden’s team is publicly neutral, but privately they’re nervous. A hostile Colombia would be a gift to the GOP narrative: “Democrats lose Latin America.”
Back in London, the Foreign Secretary has been burning the midnight oil. Calls to Bogotá, Brasília, Mexico City. The strategy? Hedge. Maintain channels to all sides. But the lobby knows: when a key US partner wobbles, the ripples hit the Thames.
There’s a wild card. What if Petro clings on but loses his majority? A hung congress, a weakened presidency. That’s the nightmare scenario for the markets, but perhaps a silver lining for UK diplomacy. “Gridlock means we can play the honest broker,” the diplomat mused. “But it also means instability. Supply chains. Cocaine production. Migration. It all gets snarled up.”
I hear that MI6 has been tasked with monitoring the campaign financing. Money from Caracas, from Moscow, from Miami. The usual suspects. But there’s a new player: Beijing. Chinese investment in Colombia’s infrastructure has doubled under Petro. A new president might tear up those deals, sparking a trade war on the continent.
The real source of unease, though, is what it means for the ‘special relationship’. The UK has long seen itself as a bridge between the US and Latin America. If Colombia flips, that bridge might crumble. “We’re already marginalised post-Brexit,” a former ambassador told me. “Losing our standing in Bogotá would be a disaster.”
So what happens next? Tick-tock. The campaign season is heating up. UK diplomats are dusting off their contacts. The betting markets are shifting. For now, all eyes are on the Colombian polls. But in the smoky bars of Westminster, the conversation is just beginning.
