The outcome of Colombia’s presidential runoff, scheduled for 19 June, carries implications far beyond the Andean nation. The candidate, Rodolfo Hernández, a 77-year-old businessman and former mayor of Bucaramanga, has positioned himself as a staunch ally of former US President Donald Trump. His rhetoric, which includes threats to overhaul Colombia’s foreign policy and renegotiate trade agreements, has raised alarms in London, where officials are privately assessing the fragility of bilateral trade ties that have deepened over the past decade.
Hernández’s platform is a cocktail of anti-corruption populism, economic nationalism, and a curious admiration for Trump’s playbook. He has explicitly stated his intention to prioritise relations with the United States over other partners, including the United Kingdom. In a recent interview, he dismissed the UK-Colombia trade relationship as “insignificant” and suggested he would redirect Colombia’s exports towards the US market. This is no small threat. Bilateral trade between the UK and Colombia reached £2.3 billion in 2021, a figure sustained largely by British imports of Colombian coffee, flowers, and coal. The UK also serves as a gateway for Colombian goods into European markets, and British firms have invested heavily in Colombia’s energy and infrastructure sectors.
The timing could not be more precarious. The UK is currently negotiating its own trade agreement with Colombia, scheduled to replace the existing EU-Colombia deal post-Brexit. Hernández’s victory would likely stall or fundamentally alter these negotiations. His economic advisor, a former Trump trade official, has hinted at imposing tariffs on British goods in retaliation for what he sees as the UK’s “unfair” environmental standards. Such a move would be a direct violation of World Trade Organization rules, but Hernández has shown little deference to multilateral institutions.
From a scientific perspective, this political shift would have knock-on effects on global climate goals. Colombia is a key signatory to the Paris Agreement, and its rainforests are a critical carbon sink. Under Hernández, the country could withdraw from climate commitments, a move that would accelerate biosphere collapse. The UK’s net-zero strategy relies in part on collaboration with Colombia to protect the Amazon. Without this partnership, the UK’s emissions reduction targets become harder to reach.
The British Foreign Office has remained publicly neutral, but behind closed doors, officials are modelling scenarios in which trade falls by up to 40% under a Hernández presidency. They are also exploring contingency plans to diversify supply chains, particularly for critical minerals like copper and coal, of which Colombia is a major exporter. The UK’s energy transition depends on these resources for electric vehicle batteries and renewable infrastructure. A supply shock would ripple through the British economy, raising costs for consumers and slowing the shift away from fossil fuels.
The reality of a warming planet demands a unified global response. Any disruption to trade relationships threatens to undermine the collective effort to limit temperature rise. Hernández’s flirtation with protectionism is not just an economic issue but an existential one. Calm urgency is required from British diplomats, who must work to preserve the ties that underpin both prosperity and planetary health.
In the coming weeks, the UK government will need to decide whether to engage directly with Hernández’s camp or wait for the election outcome. Early signals suggest caution: a senior trade envoy has been dispatched to Bogotá to meet with both candidates. But time is short. Colombia’s second round of voting will take place under a cloud of uncertainty, and the results could reshape the geopolitical landscape in ways that accelerate or hinder our collective response to climate change. For now, the data are clear: the stakes could not be higher.
