In what can only be described as a geopolitical cocktail of pure, unadulterated chaos, Colombia has served up a presidential runoff that pits Gustavo Petro, a former guerrilla with the charisma of a damp firework, against Rodolfo Hernández, a construction magnate who’s about as subtle as a brick through a stained-glass window. The UK, meanwhile, is watching through its fingers, clutching a portfolio of Latin American investments that’s suddenly looking as stable as a three-legged table in an earthquake. Petro, the leftist who promises to redistribute wealth and hug trees, faces Hernández, a man whose political strategy seems cribbed from a Trumpian playbook: shout loudly, blame immigrants, and promise to build things nobody asked for.
British investors, who have poured billions into everything from Colombian coffee to oil extraction, are now sweating buckets into their Savile Row suits. The spectre of a Petro victory has them reaching for the antacids, fearing nationalisation and a sudden dislike for free trade. A Hernández win, on the other hand, might keep the markets happy but could also lead to a foreign policy so erratic it makes Brexit look like a masterclass in statecraft.
The absurdity reaches fever pitch when you realise that the UK’s great hope for Latin American trade post-Brexit now hangs on the outcome of an election where one candidate once suggested legalising cocaine and the other thinks climate change is a Chinese hoax. Meanwhile, the Treasury has dispatched a delegation of stiff-backed bureaucrats to Bogotá, armed with spreadsheets and prayers. They’ll probably end up drinking bad whisky in a hotel bar, watching the results come in on a flickering television, and wondering if they should have brought a priest.
The real question is not who wins, but whether British pension funds can survive the resulting hangover. This isn’t politics: it’s a game of Russian roulette played with a blunderbuss. And the UK’s investment future is strapped to the trigger.
