The champagne corks have barely settled in Addis Ababa. But the mood in Whitehall’s Africa department is grim. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s landslide election win, a result that was never in doubt, has triggered alarm bells across the international community. The fear is not the outcome. It is what comes next.
Sources close to the Foreign Office tell me that intelligence assessments are unanimous. The vote was a formality. A rubber stamp for a leader who has already consolidated power. The real game is post-election. And the betting is on a return to open conflict.
Abiy’s Prosperity Party has swept the board. The opposition, fragmented and harassed, never stood a chance. But this isn’t a story about democracy. This is about power. And about the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). The TPLF, once the dominant force in Ethiopian politics, is now a rebel group, holed up in the northern highlands. They boycotted the election. They see the result as illegitimate. And they are arming.
The warning signs are flashing red. The Ethiopian National Defence Force is mobilising. Troops are being moved north. The rhetoric from Addis is increasingly belligerent. Abiy has called the TPLF a ‘cancer.’ The TPLF has vowed to resist. Each side is talking about ‘liberation.’ Each side is preparing for war.
Why does this matter to Westminster? Because a full-scale civil war in Ethiopia would be a catastrophe. Not just for the Horn of Africa. For the entire continent. Ethiopia is a lynchpin state. Instability there would send shockwaves through Sudan, Somalia, and Eritrea. The refugee crisis would dwarf anything we have seen. And it would provide a vacuum for extremists to fill.
The international response has been cautious, verging on timid. The US has expressed ‘concern.’ The EU has called for ‘dialogue.’ But no one is willing to call out Abiy’s power grab. No one is willing to sanction him. The reason is simple. Ethiopia is too important. It hosts the African Union. It is a key partner in the fight against terror. And it is a recipient of billions in aid.
But the aid tap is a lever. And it is one the UK should be pulling. I am told that the Foreign Office is split. The development department wants to maintain engagement. The conflict team wants to threaten consequences. The prime minister is distracted. As always, the default is drift.
The polls tell a story. Abiy’s approval rating is still high within his own ethnic base. But nationally, it is slipping. The war in Tigray, which he launched in 2020, has been a bloody stalemate. Thousands have died. Millions have been displaced. The economy is in ruins. The currency is collapsing.
And yet, Abiy is doubling down. He sees the TPLF as an existential threat. He will not compromise. He cannot afford to. A negotiated settlement would be seen as weakness. It would fracture his coalition. So he is betting on total victory. A bet that could cost him everything.
The backbench mood is restless. Labour MPs are demanding a statement from the foreign secretary. Some Conservative backbenchers are also uneasy. They remember the disastrous intervention in Libya. They fear Britain being dragged into another African quagmire. But the appetite for action is low. The budget is tight. The army is stretched.
So what happens next? The most likely scenario is a series of skirmishes escalating into full-scale war. The TPLF is battle-hardened. The Ethiopian army is larger but less motivated. Outside powers will take sides. Egypt and the United Arab Emirates have been backing Abiy. Qatar and Turkey have links with the TPLF. The proxy war has already begun.
The international community will issue statements. The UN will call for a ceasefire. The fighting will continue. And in a few months, we will be reading about massacres. About famine. About yet another African tragedy.
And the politicians in Westminster will wring their hands. They will say they did everything they could. They will be wrong. They could have applied pressure. They could have demanded a proper peace process. They could have conditioned aid on reform. But they didn’t. Because the game of politics is always about the here and now. And Ethiopia is a long way away.
For now, the files sit on desks. The cables are being drafted. The diplomats are waiting. And Ethiopia is waiting for the next round of violence.