The Horn of Africa is once again teetering on the edge of catastrophe. Ethiopia’s ruling party, the Prosperity Party, has declared a landslide victory in what it calls democratic elections. But for millions of Ethiopians, this is not a triumph of democracy; it is the sound of a drumbeat for war. The vote, boycotted by major opposition groups and held in regions already scarred by conflict, has done little to heal the fractures that threaten to tear the country apart.
The Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, once hailed as a peacemaker for signing a deal to end the brutal two-year war in Tigray, now faces accusations of manoeuvring to consolidate power. Critics say the election was neither free nor fair. In Amhara, the second most populous region, fighting has already erupted between federal forces and local militias. In Oromia, skirmishes continue. The cost of living is soaring, with bread prices doubling in some areas. Ordinary workers, already battered by inflation and unemployment, now face the prospect of conscription or displacement.
This is what happens when power is pursued at the expense of peace. The international community, which poured billions into reconstruction after the Tigray war, watches nervously. But for the farmer in Gondar or the market seller in Addis Ababa, the concern is simpler: can they feed their family tomorrow? The answer, if the country tips back into civil war, is a grim no. The real economy of Ethiopia, the one built on small plots of land and market stalls, cannot survive another round of bullets.