A landslide electoral victory for Ethiopia’s ruling party has triggered alarm among regional analysts, who warn that the result could embolden Addis Ababa to pursue a more aggressive foreign policy, destabilising an already volatile Horn of Africa.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party secured 98 per cent of parliamentary seats in last week’s election, a result widely seen as a foregone conclusion after opposition groups boycotted the poll. The outcome consolidates Mr. Abiy’s grip on power, granting him a mandate that foreign diplomats fear may be used to escalate territorial disputes with neighbours, particularly Sudan and Somalia.
Tensions have simmered along the Ethiopian-Sudanese border since 2020, when Sudanese forces reclaimed territory in the al-Fashaqa region, long farmed by Ethiopian settlers. Khartoum’s military government has accused Ethiopia of incursions, while Addis Ababa has threatened to retaliate. The landslide victory could embolden hardliners within the Prosperity Party who advocate a military solution.
Meanwhile, relations with Somalia remain strained over Ethiopia’s unilateral deal with the breakaway region of Somaliland, which granted Addis Ababa naval base access in exchange for potential recognition. Mogadishu has condemned the agreement as a violation of its sovereignty, and the African Union has called for dialogue. A confident Ethiopian leadership, however, may be less inclined to compromise.
The electoral result also raises questions about domestic stability. The boycott by major opposition parties underscores deep political divisions, particularly in the Amhara and Oromia regions, where anti-government protests have erupted. Analysts caution that internal unrest could prompt a diversionary foreign policy, as leaders seek to rally nationalist sentiment.
International response has been muted. The United States expressed “concern” over the lack of a credible opposition, while the European Union declined to send observers. China and Russia, both key arms suppliers to Ethiopia, have offered congratulations.
For the Horn of Africa, already grappling with civil war in Sudan and the aftermath of Somalia’s al-Shabaab insurgency, the spectre of a bellicose Ethiopia threatens to ignite a wider conflagration. The region’s fragile peace, propped up by African Union mediation and Western diplomatic pressure, may now face its sternest test.