In a development so predictable it could be scheduled by a Swiss railway timetable, Her Majesty's defence intelligentsia have issued a grave warning: Russian forces are massing for an assault on a key Donbas city. Yes, you heard that right. The same Donbas that has seen more front line reshuffles than a desperate Premier League manager.
Defence chiefs, in what I can only assume was a hastily convened meeting over a lukewarm cup of Earl Grey, have declared that the Kremlin is about to launch a 'new offensive'. Because, naturally, the old one was just a preliminary skirmish, a mere warm up for the real business of rearranging Ukrainian bricks into rubble. The Russians, bless them, are like that bloke at the gym who spends forty five minutes adjusting his lifting belt before attempting a rep with the lightest dumbbell.
They mass. They regroup. They consult their Soviet era manuals on 'How to Win a War in Three Easy Steps (Step One: Ignore Logistics, Step Two: Lose Men, Step Three: Blame NATO)'.
And now, they're doing it again, only this time, they've promised to be 'totally, definitely, absolutely serious about winning this time, honest'. The city in question, which shall remain nameless to protect its dignity, is about to become the setting for yet another act in this tragicomedy of errors. But fear not, the MoD has a plan.
They always have a plan. Which is to say, they will watch, they will warn, and they will prepare statements expressing 'grave concern'. Meanwhile, the Russian troops, some of whom have now spent more time in muddy trenches than in their own homes, will advance, they will retreat, they will die, and they will be replaced by more of their countrymen.
It's like a particularly grim interpretation of Groundhog Day, only with more artillery and less Bill Murray. The West, of course, will respond with a magnificent display of 'sanctions', 'condemnation', and 'diplomatic channel congestion'. But let's be honest, Putin is about as deterred by these as a toddler is by a stern look from a parent.
And so the charade continues. The Donbas, that cauldron of industrial misery and geopolitical ambition, will once again become the focal point of a war that nobody wants, but everybody is powerless to stop. The only thing we can be certain of is that the MoD's press releases will continue to be exquisitely crafted, and the gin supplies in London will remain adequate.
Cheers.