The game has shifted to the West Coast, and it is a strange one. Early returns from the California governor primary show an unexpected frontrunner: a former British political aide. That is right. A man who once ran comms for a UK chancellor is now leading the pack in the race for the most powerful statehouse in America. But he is not alone. Close behind is a former Biden cabinet secretary. The double act has left the California establishment scrambling.
Let us crunch the numbers. With 15% of precincts reporting, the ex-aide, let us call him Mr. Smith, is on 28%. The Biden woman, Ms. Jones, is on 24%. A distant third is a career California politician on 12%. The rest are below 10%. The key demographic? Independents. They have broken heavily for Smith. 40% of them went his way. The Biden loyalists, meanwhile, have consolidated around Jones. Labour unions are split. This is not how the script was written.
What is the backstory here? Smith is a cipher. He arrived in the US in 2018, worked for a tech billionaire, then vanished. Now he has emerged with a populist message that has tapped into California's disillusionment with high taxes and homelessness. His campaign is funded by a shadowy network of former Tory donors. Yes, British Conservatives bankrolling a California governor bid. The irony is not lost.
Jones has the machine. She has the endorsements of the current governor, the state party, and the environmental groups. But her ground game is weak. Her rallies are small. Smith's are massive. He has mastered the viral clip. His slogan: "Make California Think Again." It is working.
What do the insiders say? I have spoken to a former Downing Street strategist who now advises Smith. Off the record, he told me: "We are running a permanent campaign. No sleep. No mercy. The California media are asleep at the wheel." That is the mindset. They are treating this like a Brexit campaign. Disrupt. Ignore the norms. Win.
Jones's camp is rattled. A senior staffer leaked to me: "We did not see this coming. Our polling had us up by 12. Something is wrong with the sample. Or the voters are lying." Classic denial. But the numbers do not lie. The turnout is low, under 30%. That favours the insurgent. The base is not energised. The suburban women are staying home.
What does this mean for the general? If Smith wins the primary, the national Democrats will panic. They will pour money into California to stop a British agent from taking the state. But Smith is not a Republican. He is running as an independent. He could fracture the vote. The real race is between him and the GOP candidate, who is currently on 8%. Stranger things have happened.
The count is ongoing. But the trajectory is clear. The old rules are dead. A British ex-aide and a Biden cabinet secretary are fighting for the soul of California. In a world of political chaos, this is the new normal. Watch this space.
