The life sentence handed down to the driver of a car that ploughed into a crowded German Christmas market, killing six and injuring dozens, has been met with grim satisfaction. But the broader narrative emerging from the tragedy is an uncomfortable one for Berlin: the British counter-terrorism model is being held up as the gold standard, a stark reminder of the cost of fiscal restraint in homeland security.
For years, this newspaper has warned that under-investment in intelligence and police capabilities would eventually come due in blood. The German case is a textbook example. The assailant, a failed asylum seeker with known extremist links, had slipped through the net despite multiple warnings. In the UK, a similar threat would likely have been neutralised earlier by MI5’s network of informants and the Prevent programme, however controversial.
Let us be clear: the British model is not without its flaws. But it has delivered. Through a combination of robust surveillance, community policing, and cross-agency co-ordination, the UK has prevented countless atrocities. The price tag is significant, but the alternative is far costlier in human and economic terms.
The German verdict therefore serves as a painful audit of misplaced priorities. While Berlin has focused on social spending and green subsidies, the nuts and bolts of internal security have been neglected. Gilt yields may not reflect it, but the market is watching. Capital flight from jurisdictions perceived as soft on terror is a real and present danger. Investors demand stability, and a justice system that only acts after the bodies are counted is not a selling point.
Yet there is a deeper lesson here for the UK. The very success of our counter-terror strategy has bred complacency. Cuts to police numbers and the erosion of trust in institutions risk undermining the delicate web of vigilance that keeps us safe. The market for security is no different from any other: you get what you pay for. If the Treasury continues to squeeze budgets in the name of fiscal discipline, the dividends of safety will soon be cashed in.
The German tragedy and its aftermath should serve as a wake-up call. The British model is praised today, but only because it has been funded adequately. Let us not forget that the moment we start cutting corners, the next market murderer may be driving through our own streets.
