Russia has ordered foreign nationals to leave Kyiv, a clear signal that the next phase of this conflict will target the capital with intensified strategic strikes. This is not a humanitarian gesture. This is a threat vector being deployed to shape the battlespace.
The Kremlin knows that every foreign passport holder still in the city is a potential diplomatic liability and a source of intelligence leakage. By forcing them out, Moscow is clearing the deck for a more aggressive standoff, likely involving long-range precision munitions and possibly thermobaric systems. The timing is no coincidence.
With Western resupply lines strained and Ukrainian air defence stockpiles dwindling, the Russian General Staff sees a window of opportunity to break the capital's will. The evacuation order mirrors classic combined arms doctrine: isolate the target, remove neutral observers, then apply overwhelming force. Kyiv's vulnerability is not just physical.
It is a political centre. Strikes against government districts, energy grids, and command nodes would constitute a strategic pivot aimed at decapitating Ukraine's command and control. We should expect a multi-axis assault, with cruise missiles from the Black Sea and ballistic missiles from Belgorod.
The question is whether Ukraine's integrated air defence network, already degraded, can sustain the intercept rate. This is a race between attrition and adaptation. The Kremlin has calculated that the cost of taking Kyiv is acceptable.
The West must now calculate whether the cost of defending it is sustainable.
