A grim new front has opened in the battle against avian flu. Scientists from the Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA) have confirmed that the H5N1 strain is now killing seals in unprecedented numbers along the British coast. This is no longer just a poultry problem. The virus has jumped species. It is circulating in marine mammals. And that, according to a leaked internal briefing, raises the spectre of a human pandemic.
The APHA has logged over 3,000 seal deaths since June. The real figure is likely far higher. Carcasses wash ashore, decompose, and go uncounted. The epicentre is the Norfolk coast, where common and grey seals haul out on beaches now littered with dead pups. The virus attacks their lungs and brains. Necropsies show lesions typical of severe influenza. One scientist described it to me as “a rolling disaster.”
Here is the political rub. Whitehall has been slow to act. The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) issued a vague statement advising the public to avoid sick seals. No cull. No quarantine zone. No compensation scheme for wildlife rescue groups who are now overwhelmed. The Treasury has refused emergency funding. Sources in Defra tell me the Secretary of State was “not fully briefed” until last week.
Now the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) is watching. A prominent member, Professor Sir Andrew Pollard, told me off the record that “the risk to humans is low but not negligible.” The virus has not yet acquired the ability to transmit easily between people. But each mammal infection is a roll of the dice. Mutations happen. The UK has no stockpile of H5N1-specific vaccines. The last pandemic flu vaccine order was for swine flu in 2009.
The scientific community is split. Some argue the risk is overblown. Others point to the 1918 Spanish flu, which started as a bird virus. The Cambridge University virologist Dr. Sarah Caddy published a preprint yesterday warning that seal colonies could act as “viral melting pots.” Her data shows the virus is already adapting to mammalian hosts. The government’s own risk assessment, seen by this paper, rates the likelihood of a human case in the UK as “medium” by the end of the year.
Downing Street is nervous. The Prime Minister’s director of communications told me to expect a “co-ordinated response” this week. But the machine grinds slowly. The Civil Contingencies Secretariat has drafted a plan for mass testing of seal populations. It sits on a desk in Defra. Unfunded.
The opposition is circling. The shadow environment secretary tweeted that “the government is asleep at the wheel.” Labour has tabled parliamentary questions demanding an urgent statement. The public health lobby is mobilising. The British Medical Journal has called for an independent inquiry.
This is a slow-motion crisis with a ticking clock. Every dead seal is a warning. The question is whether Westminster will listen before the virus finds a human host. The Lobby is buzzing with talk of a late-night Cobra meeting. I suspect the PM will act only when the first case hits our shores. By then, it will be too late.
Reporting from Whitehall, Eleanor Rigby.
