Ethiopia stands at a precipice tonight. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s ruling party has swept Sunday’s election with a landslide, securing 410 of 436 parliamentary seats. But for millions of Ethiopians, this is no victory. It is a verdict that threatens to tear the nation apart.
On the streets of Addis Ababa, the mood is tense. The prime minister’s supporters celebrate, waving flags and chanting his name. But in the northern regions of Tigray, Amhara and Oromia, the reaction is one of fury and despair. The election was marred by reports of irregularities, boycotts and violence. In Tigray, where a devastating civil war has raged for months, no voting took place at all. Millions were disenfranchised.
“This is not democracy. This is a power grab,” said Hailu Gebre, a shopkeeper in Mekelle, speaking by phone. His voice cracked as he described the destruction around him. “We are already at war. Now they tell us we have no voice. What do they expect? That we will simply accept it?”
Analysts warn the result could reignite conflict. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front, which fought a bitter war with federal forces last year, called the election a “sham”. The Oromo Liberation Army, a rebel group, has vowed to intensify its insurgency. The prime minister, who won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for ending a two-decade stalemate with Eritrea, now faces the prospect of turning his country into a battlefield.
At the heart of this crisis is a struggle over identity and power. Ethiopia is a patchwork of ethnic groups, each with its own language, culture and history. For decades, a federal system gave regions considerable autonomy. But Abiy’s government has moved to centralise authority, creating a unitary state that many see as a threat to their way of life.
“He wants all of us to be one people, but you cannot erase history,” said Alemitu Tadesse, a teacher in Bahir Dar. She fears the new government will crush dissent, silencing critics and marginalising minorities. “We are walking into a dark tunnel. There is no light at the end.”
The international community has reacted with alarm. The United Nations has called for restraint. The United States has threatened sanctions. But on the ground, ordinary people are preparing for the worst. Food prices are soaring. Fuel is scarce. Hospitals are overwhelmed with wounded soldiers and civilians.
In the capital, the wealthy are stocking up on supplies and planning to flee. In the countryside, farmers are burying their savings and hiding their livestock. The stock market has slumped. The currency has lost value. Businesses are shuttering.
“The economy is in freefall,” said Mekonnen Desta, an economist at Addis Ababa University. “Investors are pulling out. Trade has stopped. If this conflict deepens, we could see a full-blown humanitarian catastrophe. The price of bread has already doubled in some areas. People cannot afford to feed their children.”
Tonight, the prime minister is expected to address the nation. He will speak of unity and progress, of a bright future. But for many, his words ring hollow. They remember the promises he made in 2018, when he took office vowing to bring peace and democracy. Instead, they got war and repression.
As the sun sets over this ancient land, the question on everyone’s lips is simple: what comes next? A descent into chaos? A fragile ceasefire? Or something worse? The answer will determine not just the fate of Ethiopia, but the stability of the entire Horn of Africa.
For now, the people wait. They pray. They hold their breath. And they wonder if their country will ever be whole again.