The news of SpaceX approaching a $1.75tn valuation through a share sale is not merely a financial event. In the calculus of defence and intelligence, it is a strategic pivot that carries severe implications for British security. As an ex-Military Intelligence analyst, I assess this through the lens of hardware dependency, cyber vulnerability, and the erosion of sovereign capability. Here are four threat vectors Britain must urgently address.
First, the reliance on Starlink for battlefield communications in Ukraine has already exposed a critical dependency. If SpaceX becomes private and its ownership structure shifts, Britain’s own military use of commercial satellite constellations could be compromised. We have seen how single points of failure in space assets can be weaponised. The UK must accelerate its own sovereign satellite communications programme, Project Titania, and reduce reliance on US commercial systems.
Second, the valuation itself signals an unprecedented concentration of capital and control in Elon Musk. His unpredictability and stated opposition to government regulation create a risk profile that intelligence planners cannot ignore. A hostile actor could exploit his influence through disinformation campaigns aimed at his social platform, or worse, acquire a stake in the new SpaceX entity to gain access to dual-use technologies classified under ITAR. The National Cyber Security Centre must monitor any foreign investment in this share sale.
Third, the hardware: SpaceX’s Starship development for the Artemis programme and potential military payloads gives it a monopoly on heavy lift capability. The UK’s military strategy relies on responsive space access, yet we have no equivalent. This share sale could further entrench a US commercial monopoly, leaving Britain vulnerable to launch denial or technology denial in a crisis. The Defence Science and Technology Laboratory must assess the feasibility of a UK sovereign heavy lift programme.
Finally, the intelligence failure to anticipate this scale of growth highlights a systemic weakness in how Whitehall assesses emerging technology threats. The Joint Intelligence Organisation must treat SpaceX as a state-adjacent actor with capabilities that rival mid-tier nations. The share sale is a trigger for a comprehensive review of UK space defence posture. Without action, Britain risks strategic irrelevance in the next domain of conflict.
The author is Dominic Croft, a former Military Intelligence officer specialising in strategic threats.
