A heatwave of unprecedented intensity is currently gripping Germany, Denmark, and the Czech Republic, with temperatures reaching record highs. The German Weather Service (DWD) reported that Berlin hit 39.5°C on Tuesday, breaking the previous June record by nearly two degrees. In Dresden, the mercury touched 40.3°C, while Copenhagen and Prague also saw all-time highs for the month. The UK Met Office has issued a warning that the same weather system is expected to drift westwards, potentially bringing extreme heat to southern England by the weekend.
This event is not an anomaly but a predictable consequence of a warming climate. The jet stream, which typically steers weather systems across the Atlantic, has become wavier due to the amplified warming of the Arctic. This allows hot air from North Africa to surge northwards, a pattern we have observed with increasing frequency. The current heatwave is the third such event to hit Europe in the past six weeks, with Spain and France already experiencing temperatures above 40°C in May.
The physical reality is stark. As the atmosphere warms, it holds more moisture, but paradoxically, this leads to more intense and prolonged droughts because the extra moisture evaporates from the soil more quickly, creating a feedback loop. Soils in central Europe are already parched, with the European Drought Observatory reporting severe deficits across the region. This not only amplifies the heat but also raises the risk of wildfires and crop failures.
For the UK, the Met Office’s warning is a reminder that no country is immune. The UK heatwave of 2022, which saw temperatures exceed 40°C for the first time, is no longer a freak event but a harbinger of the new normal. The Met Office has indicated that the probability of such temperatures has increased tenfold due to climate change. If the current pattern holds, parts of southern England could see temperatures in the mid-30s Celsius by Saturday, breaking records for this time of year.
The implications are far-reaching. Energy grids are strained as demand for cooling spikes. In Germany, the coal-fired power plants that were supposed to be phased out have been brought back online to cover the shortfall from reduced hydroelectric and wind generation. This creates a cruel irony: the heatwave is partly a result of fossil fuel emissions, and the response is to burn more fossil fuels, perpetuating the cycle.
There are technological solutions, but they require political will. The expansion of solar power, which ironically performs better in cooler conditions but is still a viable alternative, along with increased cross-border energy sharing, could mitigate the strain. But the fundamental issue remains the continued emission of greenhouse gases. The IPCC has made it clear that every fraction of a degree of warming increases the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events.
As a scientist, I find it exhausting to repeat these facts, but they bear repeating because the public discourse still treats heatwaves as unexpected surprises. They are not. The physical world is responding to the energy imbalance we have created. The only surprise is our collective failure to act with the urgency that the data demands. This heatwave is a signal, a physical manifestation of the equation. The choice is ours: to mitigate or to adapt to a world that is becoming increasingly hostile to the way we live.
For now, the advice is simple but grim: stay hydrated, check on the elderly, and avoid strenuous activity during peak heat. But we must also look beyond the immediate to the systemic. The window for action is closing, but it is not yet shut. The physics allow for a stable climate if we choose to pursue it. The question is whether we will.
