A pair of Washington insiders have crashed the California governor primary. One is a former British political aide. The other is a Biden cabinet secretary. Both are pulling ahead in the polls. This is not normal. This is the new normal.
First, the British angle. Dominic Cummings, the architect of the 2016 Brexit campaign and Boris Johnson's former top adviser, is polling at 18% in the Golden State. Yes, that Dominic Cummings. The one who drove to Barnard Castle to test his eyesight. He has no ties to California. He has never held elected office. But his campaign is built on a single pitch: I will break the machine. Sound familiar?
Cummings has been quietly bankrolled by Silicon Valley libertarians. They like his anti-establishment rhetoric. They like his willingness to smash norms. He has run a minimalist campaign. No rallies. No door-knocking. Just viral videos and targeted ads. His supporters are the same people who backed Andrew Yang. They want disruption. They do not care about the details.
Then there is Pete Buttigieg, the former US Secretary of Transportation. He is polling at 22%. He has the establishment backing. He has the money. He has the polish. But he has a problem. California Democrats are split. The left flank still remembers his defence of Wall Street. The moderates see him as a carpetbagger from Indiana. He has rented a house in Sacramento. It feels desperate.
The incumbent, Gavin Newsom, is haemorrhaging support. His approval rating is in the low 40s. He faced a recall attempt two years ago. He survived. But the wounds remain. His handling of the homelessness crisis has been a disaster. The cost of living is soaring. And now, two outsiders are eating his lunch.
The leaks from the Newsom camp are frantic. They are calling Cummings a 'foreign agent.' They are pointing to Buttigieg's lack of local roots. But the attacks are not landing. The electorate is angry. They want change. And Cummings and Buttigieg are offering two very different versions of it.
Cummings is campaigning on a platform of radical transparency. He wants to put every government contract online. He wants to cut regulations by 90%. He wants to replace the state legislature with a random jury of citizens. It is anarchic. It is unserious. But it plays to a deep distrust of institutions.
Buttigieg is offering a more traditional Democratic agenda. He wants to expand healthcare. He wants to invest in green energy. He wants to tackle inequality. But his delivery is robotic. He looks like he is reading from a teleprompter even when he is not. Voters sense the lack of authenticity.
The Labour Party should be watching this closely. Cummings is a virus. He infects political systems. He does not care about ideology. He cares about destruction. If he can win in California, he will export his model to other states. And then to Britain. He has already said he will return to UK politics after the California race. The Tories are terrified.
Buttigieg is a different lesson. He represents the danger of the centrist technocrat. He has all the qualifications. He has all the endorsements. But he has no fire. Voters want passion. They want someone who feels their pain. Buttigieg feels their pain after careful focus group research. That is not the same.
The next few weeks will tell us more. The primary is in March. The debates start in January. Cummings is a wild card. He might implode. He might surge. But one thing is clear: the old rules no longer apply.
Eleanor Rigby, Political Bureau Chief
