The British government has thrown its weight behind Amnesty International’s damning report that the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan are guilty of crimes against humanity in the city of el-Fasher. For those of us who track the grim arithmetic of conflict, this is another ledger entry in a region where human life has been systematically devalued.
Amnesty’s investigators have documented a pattern of extrajudicial killings, torture, and sexual violence against civilians in el-Fasher, a city that has become a battleground in the power struggle between the RSF and the Sudanese Armed Forces. The report, released this morning, concludes that these acts constitute crimes against humanity under international law. The UK Foreign Office was quick to issue a statement backing the findings, calling for accountability and an end to impunity.
But let us be realistic. This is a market where justice has a high cost of entry and a low probability of return. The RSF, a paramilitary group with deep ties to the gold and gum arabic trade, has been a destabilising force in Darfur for years. Their leadership has shown little regard for diplomatic pressure or sanctions. The UK’s endorsement, while symbolically important, is unlikely to move the needle on the ground unless backed by concrete measures such as asset freezes or arms embargoes.
From a fiscal perspective, Sudan’s economy is already in freefall. Inflation is running at over 200%, the currency is in a death spiral, and capital flight has stripped the country of any semblance of foreign reserves. The RSF’s atrocities only accelerate this collapse, as foreign investors rightly steer clear of a jurisdiction with no rule of law. Gilt yields in neighbouring countries have been affected by the spillover risk, with Egypt’s bonds selling off in recent weeks despite no direct link to the conflict.
The UK’s position is clear: it backs the Amnesty report and calls for referrals to the International Criminal Court. But the ICC is a slow-moving institution with a budget that wouldn’t cover the legal fees of a mid-tier London law firm. And the RSF’s leadership knows this. They will continue to trade violence for gold, banking on the short attention span of global news cycles.
The bottom line: statements are cheap, and lives are cheaper. Until the international community puts its money where its mouth is, expect the RSF to continue its campaign of terror in el-Fasher and beyond. The market for justice is fundamentally illiquid.
