Westminster is watching Damascus with a raised eyebrow. The announcement came from the new authorities in Syria: a transitional parliament, handpicked to steer the country after the fall of Assad. But the list of names, leaked to the Lobby this morning, confirms what Whitehall feared. Iran's fingerprints are all over it.
Key committees? Dominated by factions with deep Tehran ties. The Foreign Office is trying to frame this as 'inclusive.' A senior source's exact words: 'We are taking a watch-and-see approach.' Speak for yourself. The mood in the backbenches is far less diplomatic. Several Tory MPs are already drafting letters demanding a review of UK aid to Syria. Labour's foreign affairs team is quieter, but only because they are waiting for the polling bounce.
Here is the game. The UK cannot afford to alienate the new parliament. Syria is a humanitarian black hole. British interests in the region are at stake. But the optics of dealing with a chamber where Iranian proxies hold the gavel are toxic. The PM's office knows it. They are banking on the idea that the factions are not monolithic. 'They need our cash more than we need their promises,' one Downing Street aide told me. Cynical? Yes. But that is how the game is played.
Cabinet is split. The Defence Secretary is pushing for a harder line. The International Development team is urging engagement. The real argument is about the timing of any official recognition. Expect a quiet delay. A 'long summer of assessment.' The official line will be about 'process' and 'inclusivity.' The subtext is: we are waiting for the Iranians to overreach.
And what of the opposition? The SNP is already grandstanding. Their foreign affairs spokesperson called it a 'sham parliament.' A convenient line, but one that plays well north of the border. Labour is staying disciplined, for now. But Starmer's people know the moment the polls shift, they will need to be seen as tough on Iran. This issue has legs.
The real story, though, is the intelligence. My sources in the security services tell me the assessment is mixed. The new parliament is a power-sharing arrangement, yes, but it is fragile. The Iran-backed factions are not united. Some are more pragmatic. The UK's hope is to peel away the moderates. That is the playbook from Iraq. It worked, sort of.
For now, the PM will hide behind the usual phrase: 'We support the Syrian people's desire for a stable transition.' Meaning: we will wait until the last possible moment to decide. The cautious approach is classic Whitehall. But the risk is that by the time the UK picks a side, the game will already be over. The Iranians do not 'assess.' They act.
This is a slow-burn crisis. The sort that dominates the back pages but never quite makes the front. Until it does. Keep an eye on the backbench letters. That is where the pressure will build. A cabinet revolt is unlikely, but a quiet reshuffle of the Syria policy team? That is already in motion.
Eleanor Rigby, Political Bureau Chief
